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Water plays a vital role in sustaining the natural functioning of the entire ecosystem that supports life on Earth. It plays key roles in the well‐being of society in numerous ways. However, climate variability and land use land cover (LULC) change have caused spatiotemporal water supply variation. Disentangling the effects of climate variability from LULC change on water supply is crucial for sustainable water resource management. The main purpose of this study is, therefore, to disentangle the relative contribution of LULC change and climate variability to the overall average annual water supply variation. Residual trends analysis combined with Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) annual water yield model was adopted to perform simulations and disentangle the relative impacts of climate variability and LULC change. Ground and satellite data were used in this study. The study area has experienced a significant increasing wetness trend and significant LULC dynamics between 2003 and 2017. As a result, an increasing water supply was observed due to the joint effects of climate variability and LULC change in the watershed (203 mm). The contribution of climate variability was 94%, whereas LULC contributes only 6% from 2003 to 2017. Climate variability negatively led to water supply variation while LULC change contributed positively from 2010 to 2017. Although the ongoing soil and water conservation (SWC) practices improved vegetation cover and water retention of the watershed, climate variability is the main driver of water supply variation. Therefore, SWC practices should incorporate ecosystem‐based climate change adaptation strategies and scale up to community‐based integrated watershed management to sustain water supply.

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Abstract:Highway construction has accelerated urban growth and induced direct and indirect changes to land use. Although many studies have analyzed the relationship between highway construction and local development, relatively less attention has been paid to clarifying the various impacts of highways associated with farmland loss. This paper integrates GIS spatial analysis, remote sensing, buffer analysis and landscape metrics to analyze the landscape pattern change induced by direct and indirect highway impacts. This paper explores the interaction between the impact of highways and farmland loss, using the case of the highly urbanized traffic hubs in eastern China, Hang-Jia-Hu Plain. Our results demonstrate that the Hang-Jia-Hu Plain experienced extensive highway construction during 1990-2010, with a clear acceleration of expressway development since 2000. This unprecedented highway construction has directly fragmented the regional landscape and indirectly disturbed the regional landscape by attracting a large amount of built-up land transition from farmland during the last two decades. In the highway-effect zone, serious farmland loss initially occurred in the urban region and then spread to the rural region. Moreover, we found the discontinuous expansion of built-up land scattered the farmland in the rural region and expressway-effect zone. Furthermore, farmland protection policies in the 1990s had the effect of controlling the total area of farmland loss. However, the cohesive farmland structure was still fragmented by the direct and indirect impacts of highway construction. We suggest that an overall farmland protection system should be established to enhance spatial control and mitigate the adverse impacts caused by highway construction. This work improves the understanding of regional sustainable development, and provides a scientific basis for balanced urban development with farmland protection in decision-making processes.