Because of its limited statistical power, the results of the DANTE (Detection And screening of early lung cancer with Novel imaging TEchnology) trial do not allow us to make a definitive statement about the efficacy of LDCT screening. However, they underline the importance of obtaining additional data from randomized trials with intervention-free reference arms before the implementation of population screening.
To evaluate the prognostic role of chest computed tomography (CT), alone or in combination with clinical and laboratory parameters, in COVID-19 patients during the first peak of the pandemic. Methods: A retrospective single-center study of 301 COVID-19 patients referred to our Emergency Department (ED) from February 25 to March 29, 2020. At presentation, patients underwent chest CT and clinical and laboratory examinations. Outcomes included discharge from the ED after improvement/recovery (positive outcome), or admission to the intensive care unit or death (poor prognosis). A visual quantitative analysis was formed using two scores: the Pulmonary Involvement (PI) score based on the extension of lung involvement, and the Pulmonary Consolidation (PC) score based on lung consolidation. The prognostic value of CT alone or integrated with other parameters was studied by logistic regression and ROC analysis. Results: The impact of the CT PI score [≥15 vs. ≤ 6] on predicting poor prognosis (OR 5.71 95 % CI 1.93− 16.92, P = 0.002) was demonstrated; no significant association was found for the PC score. Chest CT had a prognostic role considering the PI score alone (AUC 0.722) and when evaluated with demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and laboratory data (AUC 0.841). We, therefore, developed a nomogram as an easy tool for immediate clinical application. Conclusions: Visual analysis of CT gives useful information to physicians for prognostic evaluations, even in conditions of COVID-19 emergency. The predictive value is increased by evaluating CT in combination with clinical and laboratory data.
Introduction
Diagnostic delay >12 months is frequent in Crohn’s disease [CD]. Recently, the International Organization for Inflammatory Bowel Disease [IO-IBD] developed a tool to identify early CD and reduce diagnostic delay. Subjects with an index ≥8 are more likely to have suspected CD (odds ratio [OR] 205, p <0.0001). We aimed to validate this questionnaire at the community level in patients seen by the general practitioners [GPs] in two large areas of Lombardy, Italy.
Methods
Consecutive adult patients referring to the GP were screened. The GPs administered the Red Flags [RF] questionnaire to the eligible patients. All patients were referred to the nearest participating centre to confirm or exclude the diagnosis of CD. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values [PPV, NPV] of the RF index [RFI] were calculated. Patients lost to follow-up after the first gastroenterological visit were analysed using a non-responder imputation, assuming they were negative for CD diagnosis.
Results
From November 2016 to November 2019, 112 patients were included. A total of 66 subjects [59%] completed the study after the first gastroenterological visit. The prevalence of CD was 3.6% in the study population [4/112]. The RF index had 50% sensitivity, 58% specificity, 4% PPV, and 97% NPV. A combined diagnostic strategy with faecal calprotectin [FC] [RFI ≥8 and/or FC >250 ng/g] resulted in significantly improved accuracy: sensitivity 100% [29–100%], specificity 72% [55–85%], PPV = 21% [5–51%], NPV = 100% [88–100%].
Conclusions
The RF Index combined with FC is a valid tool to identify patients with high probability of having CD at early stage.
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