Hybrid breeding promises to boost yield and stability. The single most important element in implementing hybrid breeding is the recognition of a high-yielding heterotic pattern. We have developed a three-step strategy for identifying heterotic patterns for hybrid breeding comprising the following elements. First, the full hybrid performance matrix is compiled using genomic prediction. Second, a high-yielding heterotic pattern is searched based on a developed simulated annealing algorithm. Third, the long-term success of the identified heterotic pattern is assessed by estimating the usefulness, selection limit, and representativeness of the heterotic pattern with respect to a defined base population. This three-step approach was successfully implemented and evaluated using a phenotypic and genomic wheat dataset comprising 1,604 hybrids and their 135 parents. Integration of metabolomic-based prediction was not as powerful as genomic prediction. We show that hybrid wheat breeding based on the identified heterotic pattern can boost grain yield through the exploitation of heterosis and enhance recurrent selection gain. Our strategy represents a key step forward in hybrid breeding and is relevant for self-pollinating crops, which are currently shifting from pure-line to high-yielding and resilient hybrid varieties.hybrid breeding | genomic prediction | heterotic pattern

A total of 358 recent European winter wheat varieties plus 14 spring wheat varieties were evaluated for resistance to Fusarium head blight (FHB) caused by Fusarium graminearum and Fusarium culmorum in four separate environments. The FHB scores based on FHB incidence (Type I resistance)×FHB severity (Type II resistance) indicated a wide phenotypic variation of the varieties with BLUE (best linear unbiased estimation) values ranging from 0.07 to 33.67. Genotyping with 732 microsatellite markers resulted in 782 loci of which 620 were placed on the ITMI map. The resulting average marker distance of 6.8 cM allowed genome wide association mapping employing a mixed model. Though no clear population structure was discovered, a kinship matrix was used for stratification. A total of 794 significant (−log10(p)-value≥3.0) associations between SSR-loci and environment-specific FHB scores or BLUE values were detected, which included 323 SSR alleles. For FHB incidence and FHB severity a total of 861 and 877 individual marker-trait associations (MTA) were detected, respectively. Associations for both traits co-located with FHB score in most cases. Consistent associations detected in three or more environments were found on all chromosomes except chromosome 6B, and with the highest number of MTA on chromosome 5B. The dependence of the number of favourable and unfavourable alleles within a variety to the respective FHB scores indicated an additive effect of favourable and unfavourable alleles, i.e. genotypes with more favourable or less unfavourable alleles tended to show greater resistance to FHB. Assessment of a marker specific for the dwarfing gene Rht-D1 resulted in strong effects. The results provide a prerequisite for designing genome wide breeding strategies for FHB resistance.

This study revealed a complex genetic architecture of male floral traits in wheat, and Rht-D1 was identified as the only major QTL. Genome-wide prediction approaches but also phenotypic recurrent selection appear promising to increase outcrossing ability required for hybrid wheat seed production. Hybrid wheat breeding is a promising approach to increase grain yield and yield stability. However, the identification of lines with favorable male floral characteristics required for hybrid seed production currently poses a severe bottleneck for hybrid wheat breeding. This study therefore aimed to unravel the genetic architecture of floral traits and to assess the potential of genomic approaches to accelerate their improvement. To this end, we employed a panel of 209 diverse winter wheat lines assessed for male floral traits and genotyped with genome-wide markers as well as for Rht-B1 and Rht-D1. We found the highest proportion of explained genotypic variance for the Rht-D1 locus (11-24 %), for which the dwarfing allele Rht-D1b had a negative effect on anther extrusion, visual anther extrusion and pollen mass. The genome-wide scan detected only few QTL with small or medium effects, indicating a complex genetic architecture. Consequently, marker-assisted selection yielded only moderate prediction abilities (0.44-0.63), mainly relying on Rht-D1. Genomic selection based on weighted ridge-regression best linear unbiased prediction achieved higher prediction abilities of up to 0.70 for anther extrusion. In conclusion, recurrent phenotypic selection appears most cost-effective for the initial improvement of floral traits in wheat, while genome-wide prediction approaches may be worthwhile when complete marker profiles are already available in a hybrid wheat breeding program.

Modern genomics approaches rely on the availability of high-throughput and high-density genotyping platforms. A major breakthrough in wheat genotyping was the development of an SNP array. In this study, we used a diverse panel of 172 elite European winter wheat lines to evaluate the utility of the SNP array for genomic analyses in wheat germplasm derived from breeding programs. We investigated population structure and genetic relatedness and found that the results obtained with SNP and SSR markers differ. This suggests that additional research is required to determine the optimum approach for the investigation of population structure and kinship. Our analysis of linkage disequilibrium (LD) showed that LD decays within approximately 5-10 cM. Moreover, we found that LD is variable along chromosomes. Our results suggest that the number of SNPs needs to be increased further to obtain a higher coverage of the chromosomes. Taken together, SNPs can be a valuable tool for genomics approaches and for a knowledge-based improvement of wheat.

Genomic selection models can be trained using historical data and filtering genotypes based on phenotyping intensity and reliability criterion are able to increase the prediction ability. We implemented genomic selection based on a large commercial population incorporating 2325 European winter wheat lines. Our objectives were (1) to study whether modeling epistasis besides additive genetic effects results in enhancement on prediction ability of genomic selection, (2) to assess prediction ability when training population comprised historical or less-intensively phenotyped lines, and (3) to explore the prediction ability in subpopulations selected based on the reliability criterion. We found a 5 % increase in prediction ability when shifting from additive to additive plus epistatic effects models. In addition, only a marginal loss from 0.65 to 0.50 in accuracy was observed using the data collected from 1 year to predict genotypes of the following year, revealing that stable genomic selection models can be accurately calibrated to predict subsequent breeding stages. Moreover, prediction ability was maximized when the genotypes evaluated in a single location were excluded from the training set but subsequently decreased again when the phenotyping intensity was increased above two locations, suggesting that the update of the training population should be performed considering all the selected genotypes but excluding those evaluated in a single location. The genomic prediction ability was substantially higher in subpopulations selected based on the reliability criterion, indicating that phenotypic selection for highly reliable individuals could be directly replaced by applying genomic selection to them. We empirically conclude that there is a high potential to assist commercial wheat breeding programs employing genomic selection approaches.