Outbreaks of crown-of-thorns seastars (CoTS; Acanthaster spp.) are a major contributor to degradation of Indo-Pacific coral reefs. Understanding the dispersal and fate of planktonic life stages is crucial to understand and manage outbreaks, but visual detection of CoTS larvae is challenging. We apply a quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay to enumerate CoTS larvae in a 3-year time series of plankton samples from two reefs (Agincourt and Moore Reefs) on the Great Barrier Reef. Plankton surveys were complemented with settlement assays, and benthic surveys of juvenile and adult densities over time. Only one out of 109 plankton samples from Agincourt Reef had detectable CoTS mtDNA compared to 41 out of 575 samples from Moore Reef. This may be explained by differences in adult densities, or differences in connectivity and larval retention. Detections of larval CoTS were restricted to summer (November–February), with first detections each year coinciding with water temperatures reaching 28 °C and peak detections late December. A disproportionate number of larval detections occurred in 7 days around full moon. Complementary sampling of settlement and post-settlement life stages confirmed that elevated densities of CoTS larvae at Moore Reef translated to high rates of settlement adding to infestations at this reef. Moreover, there were declines in the detection of larvae, as well densities of juvenile and adult CoTS at Moore Reef, in 2017 and 2018. This study demonstrates that qPCR for genetic identification and quantification of larvae can assist to elucidate life history parameters of nuisance species difficult to obtain with other tools.

Reef configuration and hydrodynamics were identified as the principle physical drivers behind coral reef fish aggregations on a mid-shelf patch reef in the northern section of the Great Barrier Reef (-16.845°, 146.23°). The study was carried out over a six-year period at a large reef pass on the oceanic margin of the northern Great Barrier Reef. Over this period (February 2006 –December 2012) tidal state, moon phase and surface seawater temperature were monitored. The timing of sampling was organised to assess variation in physical environment at daily, monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. Over these time scales, temporal patterns of occurrence of 10 species of coral reef fish from 5 families representing 5 defined trophic groups were monitored. The study incorporated 1,357 underwater visual census counts involving 402,370 fish and these estimates were collated with data on tidal state, water temperature, lunar and seasonal periodicity. Aggregated boosted regression trees analysed the univariate responses of fish abundance and species richness to the variation in the physical environment of the reef pass. Flood tides or when water flows from open water through the pass and into the Moore Reef lagoon had 2.3 times as many fish and 1.75 times as many species compared to counts made on ebb tides. Fish abundance was highest in late winter and spring months (Austral calendar), but notably when water temperatures were below the long-term mean of 27°C. Multivariate regression trees and Dufrêne-Legendre indicator predicted 4 out of 10 times the occurrence of all 10 species at any temporal scale ranging from hours to years. Flood tides were the principle driver underlying the occurrence of all 10 species regardless of their trophic classification and produced distinct seasonal assemblages, indicative of fishes aggregating to forage and reproduce.