We estimated the biological and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries in the United States (U.S.). Changes in stream temperatures, flows, and the spatial extent of suitable thermal habitats for fish guilds were modeled for the coterminous U.S. using a range of projected changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). Based on modeled shifts in available thermal habitat for fish Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2013) guilds, we estimated potential economic impacts associated with changes in freshwater recreational fishing using a national-scale economic model of recreational fishing behavior. In general, the spatial distribution of coldwater fisheries is projected to contract, being replaced by warm/cool water and high-thermally tolerant, lower recreational priority (i.e., "rough") fisheries. Changes in thermal habitat suitability become more pronounced under higher emissions scenarios and at later time periods. Under the highest GHG emissions scenario, by year 2100 habitat for coldwater fisheries is projected to decline by roughly 50 % and be largely confined to mountainous areas in the western U.S. and very limited areas of New England and the Appalachians. The economic model projects a decline in coldwater fishing days ranging from 1.25 million in 2030 to 6.42 million by 2100 and that the total present value of national economic losses to freshwater recreational fishing from 2009 to 2100 could range from $81 million to $6.4 billion, depending on the emissions scenario and the choice of discount rate.

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We analyzed the potential physical and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries and coral reefs in the United States, examining a reference case and two policy scenarios that limit global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We modeled shifts in suitable habitat for three freshwater fish guilds and changes in coral reef cover for three regions. We estimated resulting economic impacts from projected changes in recreational fishing and changes in recreational use of coral reefs. In general, coldwater fisheries are projected to be replaced by less desirable fisheries over the 21st century, but these impacts are reduced under the GHG mitigation scenarios. Similarly, coral cover is projected to decline over the 21st century primarily due to multiple bleaching events, but the GHG mitigation scenarios delay these declines in Hawaii (but not in South Florida or Puerto Rico). Using a benefit-transfer approach, we estimated that global policies limiting GHG emissions would Climatic Change (2015) 131:143-157

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Welfare measures from travel cost models net out variable costs such as travel expenses specific to each trip. Costs that are fixed in the short run, such as expenses for equipment that is used over multiple trips, are typically ignored and implicitly netted out. The resulting net value of recreation trips, or consumer surplus, is appropriate for long‐run analysis when consumers can fully adjust their expenditures. However, in cases where some costs are difficult to adjust in the short run, such as when boat owners do not sell their boats in response to the transient effects of an oil spill, traditional consumer surplus measures underestimate the total welfare change. We explain this underestimation and show how to correct for it by adjusting traditional consumer surplus estimates upward. We illustrate our procedure using a model of recreational boating developed to assess damages from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. In that case, accounting for boating fixed costs resulted in a 50% increase in estimated value relative to estimates of consumer surplus alone.