In cyberspace, evolutionary strategies are commonly used by both attackers and defenders. For example, an attacker's strategy often changes over the course of time, as new vulnerabilities are discovered and/or mitigated. Similarly, a defender's strategy changes over time. These changes may or may not be in direct response to a change in the opponent's strategy. In any case, it is important to have a set of quantitative metrics to characterize and understand the effectiveness of attackers' and defenders' evolutionary strategies, which reflect their cyber agility. Despite its clear importance, few systematic metrics have been developed to quantify the cyber agility of attackers and defenders. In this paper, we propose the first metric framework for measuring cyber agility in terms of the effectiveness of the dynamic evolution of cyber attacks and defenses. The proposed framework is generic and applicable to transform any relevant, quantitative, and/or conventional static security metrics (e.g., false positives and false negatives) into dynamic metrics to capture dynamics of system behaviors. In order to validate the usefulness of the proposed framework, we conduct case studies on measuring the evolution of cyber attacks and defenses using two real-world datasets. We discuss the limitations of the current work and identify future research directions.

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Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) are a necessary cyber defense mechanism. Unfortunately, their capability has fallen behind that of attackers. This motivates us to improve our understanding of the root causes of their false-negatives. In this paper we make a first step towards the ultimate goal of drawing useful insights and principles that can guide the design of next-generation IDSs. Specifically, we propose a methodology for analyzing the root causes of IDS false-negatives and conduct a case study based on Snort and a real-world dataset of cyber attacks. The case study allows us to draw useful insights.

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