Summary Background Strong evidence shows that physical inactivity increases the risk of many adverse health conditions, including the world’s major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) of coronary heart disease (CHD), type 2 diabetes, and breast and colon cancers, and shortens life expectancy. Because much of the world’s population is inactive, this presents a major public health problem. We aimed to quantify the impact of physical inactivity on these major NCDs by estimating how much disease could be averted if those inactive were to become active and to estimate gain in life expectancy, at the population level. Methods Using conservative assumptions, we calculated population attributable fractions (PAF) associated with physical inactivity for each of the major NCDs, by country, to estimate how much disease could be averted if physical inactivity were eliminated, and used life table analysis to estimate gains in life expectancy of the population. Findings Worldwide, we estimate that physical inactivity is responsible for 6% of the burden of disease from CHD (range: 3.2% in South-east Asia to 7.8% in the Eastern Mediterranean region); 7% of type 2 diabetes (3.9% to 9.6%), 10% of breast cancer (5.6% to 14.1%), and 10% of colon cancer (5.7% to 13.8%). Inactivity is responsible for 9% of premature mortality (5.1% to 12.5%), or >5.3 of the 57 million deaths that occurred worldwide in 2008. If inactivity were not eliminated, but decreased instead by 10% or 25%, >533,000 and >1.3 million deaths, respectively, may be averted each year. By eliminating physical inactivity, life expectancy of the world’s population is estimated to increase by 0.68 (0.41 to 0.95) years. Interpretation Physical inactivity has a major health impact on the world. Elimination of physical inactivity would remove between 6% and 10% of the major NCDs of CHD, type 2 diabetes, and breast and colon cancers, and increase life expectancy.

ObjectiveTo examine the dose-response associations between accelerometer assessed total physical activity, different intensities of physical activity, and sedentary time and all cause mortality.DesignSystematic review and harmonised meta-analysis.Data sourcesPubMed, PsycINFO, Embase, Web of Science, Sport Discus from inception to 31 July 2018.Eligibility criteriaProspective cohort studies assessing physical activity and sedentary time by accelerometry and associations with all cause mortality and reported effect estimates as hazard ratios, odds ratios, or relative risks with 95% confidence intervals.Data extraction and analysisGuidelines for meta-analyses and systematic reviews for observational studies and PRISMA guidelines were followed. Two authors independently screened the titles and abstracts. One author performed a full text review and another extracted the data. Two authors independently assessed the risk of bias. Individual level participant data were harmonised and analysed at study level. Data on physical activity were categorised by quarters at study level, and study specific associations with all cause mortality were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Study specific results were summarised using random effects meta-analysis.Main outcome measureAll cause mortality.Results39 studies were retrieved for full text review; 10 were eligible for inclusion, three were excluded owing to harmonisation challenges (eg, wrist placement of the accelerometer), and one study did not participate. Two additional studies with unpublished mortality data were also included. Thus, individual level data from eight studies (n=36 383; mean age 62.6 years; 72.8% women), with median follow-up of 5.8 years (range 3.0-14.5 years) and 2149 (5.9%) deaths were analysed. Any physical activity, regardless of intensity, was associated with lower risk of mortality, with a non-linear dose-response. Hazards ratios for mortality were 1.00 (referent) in the first quarter (least active), 0.48 (95% confidence interval 0.43 to 0.54) in the second quarter, 0.34 (0.26 to 0.45) in the third quarter, and 0.27 (0.23 to 0.32) in the fourth quarter (most active). Corresponding hazards ratios for light physical activity were 1.00, 0.60 (0.54 to 0.68), 0.44 (0.38 to 0.51), and 0.38 (0.28 to 0.51), and for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity were 1.00, 0.64 (0.55 to 0.74), 0.55 (0.40 to 0.74), and 0.52 (0.43 to 0.61). For sedentary time, hazards ratios were 1.00 (referent; least sedentary), 1.28 (1.09 to 1.51), 1.71 (1.36 to 2.15), and 2.63 (1.94 to 3.56).ConclusionHigher levels of total physical activity, at any intensity, and less time spent sedentary, are associated with substantially reduced risk for premature mortality, with evidence of a non-linear dose-response pattern in middle aged and older adults.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42018091808.

IMPORTANCE A goal of 10 000 steps/d is commonly believed by the public to be necessary for health, but this number has limited scientific basis. Additionally, it is unknown whether greater stepping intensity is associated with health benefits, independent of steps taken per day. OBJECTIVE To examine associations of number of steps per day and stepping intensity with all-cause mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This prospective cohort study included 18 289 US women from the Women's Health Study who agreed to participate by wearing an accelerometer during waking hours for 7 days between 2011 and 2015. A total of 17 708 women wore and returned their devices; data were downloaded successfully from 17 466 devices. Of these women, 16 741 were compliant wearers (Ն10 h/d of wear on Ն4 days) and included in the analyses, which took place between 2018 and 2019. EXPOSURES Steps per day and several measures of stepping intensity (ie, peak 1-minute cadence; peak 30-minute cadence; maximum 5-minute cadence; time spent at a stepping rate of Ն40 steps/min, reflecting purposeful steps). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES All-cause mortality. RESULTS Of the 16 741 women who met inclusion criteria, the mean (SD) age was 72.0 (5.7) years. Mean step count was 5499 per day, with 51.4%, 45.5%, and 3.1% of time spent at 0, 1 to 39 (incidental steps), and 40 steps/min or greater (purposeful steps), respectively. During a mean follow-up of 4.3 years, 504 women died. Median steps per day across low-to-high quartiles of distribution were 2718, 4363, 5905, and 8442, respectively. The corresponding quartile hazard ratios (HRs) associated with mortality and adjusted for potential confounders were 1.00 (reference), 0.59 (95% CI, 0.47-0.75), 0.54 (95% CI, 0.41-0.72), and 0.42 (95% CI, 0.30-0.60), respectively (P < .01). In spline analysis, HRs were observed to decline progressively with higher mean steps per day until approximately 7500 steps/d, after which they leveled. For measures of stepping intensity, higher intensities were associated with significantly lower mortality rates; however, after adjusting for steps per day, all associations were attenuated, and most were no longer significant (highest vs lowest quartile for peak 1-minute cadence, HR = 0.87 [95% CI, 0.68-1.11]; peak 30-minute cadence, HR = 0.86 [95% CI, 0.65-1.13]; maximum 5-minute cadence, HR = 0.80 [95% CI, 0.62-1.05]; and time spent at a stepping rate of Ն40 steps/min, HR = 1.27 [95% CI, 0.96-1.68]; P > .05). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among older women, as few as approximately 4400 steps/d was significantly related to lower mortality rates compared with approximately 2700 steps/d. With more steps per day, mortality rates progressively decreased before leveling at approximately 7500 steps/d. Stepping intensity was not clearly related to lower mortality rates after accounting for total steps per day.

IMPORTANCE It is unclear whether the number of steps per day and the intensity of stepping are associated with lower mortality. OBJECTIVE Describe the dose-response relationship between step count and intensity and mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Representative sample of US adults aged at least 40 years in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey who wore an accelerometer for up to 7 days ( from 2003-2006). Mortality was ascertained through December 2015.EXPOSURES Accelerometer-measured number of steps per day and 3 step intensity measures (extended bout cadence, peak 30-minute cadence, and peak 1-minute cadence [steps/min]). Accelerometer data were based on measurements obtained during a 7-day period at baseline. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESThe primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer mortality. Hazard ratios (HRs), mortality rates, and 95% CIs were estimated using cubic splines and quartile classifications adjusting for age; sex; race/ethnicity; education; diet; smoking status; body mass index; self-reported health; mobility limitations; and diagnoses of diabetes, stroke, heart disease, heart failure, cancer, chronic bronchitis, and emphysema.RESULTS A total of 4840 participants (mean age, 56.8 years; 2435 [54%] women; 1732 [36%] individuals with obesity) wore accelerometers for a mean of 5.7 days for a mean of 14.4 hours per day. The mean number of steps per day was 9124. There were 1165 deaths over a mean 10.1 years of follow-up, including 406 CVD and 283 cancer deaths. The unadjusted incidence density for all-cause mortality was 76.7 per 1000 person-years (419 deaths) for the 655 individuals who took less than 4000 steps per day; 21.4 per 1000 person-years (488 deaths) for the 1727 individuals who took 4000 to 7999 steps per day; 6.9 per 1000 person-years (176 deaths) for the 1539 individuals who took 8000 to 11 999 steps per day; and 4.8 per 1000 person-years (82 deaths) for the 919 individuals who took at least 12 000 steps per day. Compared with taking 4000 steps per day, taking 8000 steps per day was associated with significantly lower all-cause mortality (HR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.44-0.55]), as was taking 12 000 steps per day (HR, 0.35 [95% CI, 0.28-0.45]). Unadjusted incidence density for all-cause mortality by peak 30 cadence was 32.9 per 1000 person-years (406 deaths) for the 1080 individuals who took 18.5 to 56.0 steps per minute; 12.6 per 1000 person-years (207 deaths) for the 1153 individuals who took 56.1 to 69.2 steps per minute; 6.8 per 1000 person-years (124 deaths) for the 1074 individuals who took 69.3 to 82.8 steps per minute; and 5.3 per 1000 person-years (108 deaths) for the 1037 individuals who took 82.9 to 149.5 steps per minute. Greater step intensity was not significantly associated with lower mortality after adjustment for total steps per day (eg, highest vs lowest quartile of peak 30 cadence: HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.65-1.27]; P value for trend = .34). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEBased on a representative sampl...