Purpose-Multivariate prognostic instruments aim to predict risk of recurrence among patients with localized prostate cancer. We sought to devise a novel risk assessment tool which would be a strong predictor of outcome across various levels of risk, and which could be easily applied and intuitively understood.Materials and Methods-We studied 1,439 men who had undergone radical prostatectomy and were followed in the CaPSURE database (a longitudinal, community-based disease registry of prostate cancer patients) diagnosed between 1992 and 2001 were included. Disease recurrence was defined as prostate specific antigen (PSA) ≥0.2 ng/ml on 2 consecutive occasions following prostatectomy, or a second cancer treatment more than six months after surgery. The UCSF-CAPRA score was developed using pre-operative PSA, Gleason score, clinical T-stage, biopsy results, and age. The index was developed and validated using Cox proportional hazards and life table analyses.Results-210 patients (15%) recurred, 145 by PSA criteria and 65 by second treatment. Based on the results of the Cox analysis, points were assigned based on PSA (0-4 points), Gleason score (0-3), T stage (0-1), age (0-1), and biopsy data (0-1). The CAPRA score range is 0 to 10, with roughly double the risk of recurrence for each 2-point increase in score. Recurrence-free survival at 5 years ranged from 85% for a CAPRA score of 0-1 (95% CI 73-92%) to 8% for a score of 7-10 (95% CI 0-28%). The concordance index for the CAPRA score was 0.66.
Conclusions-The UCSF-CAPRA score is a straightforward yet powerful preoperative risk assessment tool. It must be externally validated in future studies.
In 1992 Carlsen et al. reported a significant global decline in sperm density between 1938 and 1990 [Evidence for Decreasing Quality of Semen during Last 50 Years. Br Med J 305:609-613 (1992)]. We subsequently published a reanalysis of the studies included by Carlsen et al. [Swan et al. Have Sperm Densities Declined? A Reanalysis of Global Trend Data. Environ Health Perspect 105:1228-1232 (1997)]. In that analysis we found significant declines in sperm density in the United States and Europe/Australia after controlling for abstinence time, age, percent of men with proven fertility, and specimen collection method. The declines in sperm density in the United States (approximately 1.5%/year) and Europe/Australia (approximately 3%/year) were somewhat greater than the average decline reported by Carlsen et al. (approximately 1%/year). However, we found no decline in sperm density in non-Western countries, for which data were very limited. In the current study, we used similar methods to analyze an expanded set of studies. We added 47 English language studies published in 1934-1996 to those we had analyzed previously. The average decline in sperm count was virtually unchanged from that reported previously by Carlsen et al. (slope = -0.94 vs. -0.93). The slopes in the three geographic groupings were also similar to those we reported earlier. In North America, the slope was somewhat less than the slope we had found for the United States (slope = -0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI), -1.37--0.24). Similarly, the decline in Europe (slope = -2.35; CI, -3.66--1.05) was somewhat less than reported previously. As before, studies from other countries showed no trend (slope = -0.21; CI, -2.30-1.88). These results are consistent with those of Carlsen et al. and our previous results, suggesting that the reported trends are not dependent on the particular studies included by Carlsen et al. and that the observed trends previously reported for 1938-1990 are also seen in data from 1934-1996.
In addition to the symptomatic experience of side effects, patients reported a considerable time burden for treatment. It is important to consider supportive care strategies that may effectively reduce side effects and their associated treatment burden.
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