This paper analyzes a group of nine Latin American currencies with the aim of identifying clusters of exchange rates with similar co-movements. In this work the study of currency relationships is formulated as a network problem, where each currency is represented as a node and the relationship between each pair of currencies as a link. The paper combines two methods, Symbolic Time Series Analysis (STSA) and a clustering method based on the Minimal Spanning Tree (MST), from which we obtain a Hierarchical Tree (HT). Symbolic Time Series Analysis consists in the transformation of a given time series into a symbolic sequence with the aim of identifying patterns in the set of data. The Minimal Spanning Tree condenses the core information on the global structure of the network and its main advantage is that it greatly simplifies comparisons by dramatically reducing the number of elements that must be compared. We identify two main clusters in the currency network, as well as specific currencies that function as transmission channels between clusters. Using data regarding the degree of financial liberalization, as well as the distinction between inflation targeting (IT) and non-IT countries, the analysis suggests that the obtained taxonomy is economically relevant.
In recent months, the world has suffered from the appearance of a new strain of coronavirus, causing the COVID-19 pandemic. There are great scientific efforts to find new treatments and vaccines, at the same time that governments, companies, and individuals have taken a series of actions in response to this pandemic. These efforts seek to decrease the speed of propagation, although with significant social and economic costs. Countries have taken different actions, also with different results.
In this article we use non-parametric techniques (HT and MST) with the aim of identifying groups of countries with a similar spread of the coronavirus. The variable of interest is the number of daily infections per country. Results show that there are groups of countries with differentiated contagion dynamics, both in the number of contagions plus at the time of the greatest transmission of the disease. It is concluded that the actions taken by the countries, the speed at which they were taken and the number of tests carried out may explain part of the differences in the dynamics of contagion.
<p style='text-indent:20px;'>This work addresses the spread of the coronavirus through a non-parametric approach, with the aim of identifying communities of countries based on how similar their evolution of the disease is. The analysis focuses on the number of daily new COVID-19 cases per ten thousand people during a period covering at least 250 days after the confirmation of the tenth case. Dynamic analysis is performed by constructing Minimal Spanning Trees (MST) and identifying groups of similarity in contagions evolution in 95 time windows of a 150-day amplitude that moves one day at a time. The intensity measure considered was the number of times countries belonged to a similar performance group in constructed time windows. Groups' composition is not stable, indicating that the COVID-19 evolution needs to be treated as a dynamic problem in the context of complex systems. Three communities were identified by applying the Louvain algorithm. Identified communities analysis according to each country's socioeconomic characteristics and variables related to the disease sheds light on whether there is any suggested course of action. Even when strong testing and tracing cases policies may be related with a more stable dynamic of the disease, results indicate that communities are conformed by countries with diverse characteristics. The best option to counteract the harmful effects of a pandemic may be having strong health systems in place, with contingent capacity to deal with unforeseen events and available resources capable of a rapid expansion of its capacity.</p>
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