No abstract

A B S T R A C T Possible future changes in Baltic Sea acidÁbase (pH) and oxygen balances were studied using a catchmentÁsea coupled model system and numerical experiments based on meteorological and hydrological forcing datasets and scenarios. By using objective statistical methods, climate runs for present climate conditions were examined and evaluated using Baltic Sea modelling. The results indicate that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, the seasonal pH cycle will be amplified by increased biological production and mineralization. All examined scenarios indicate future acidification of the whole Baltic Sea that is insensitive to the chosen global climate model. The main factor controlling the direction and magnitude of future pH changes is atmospheric CO 2 concentration (i.e. emissions). Climate change and land-derived changes (e.g. nutrient loads) affect acidification mainly by altering the seasonal cycle and deep-water conditions. Apart from decreasing pH, we also project a decreased saturation state of calcium carbonate, decreased respiration index and increasing hypoxic area Á all factors that will threaten the marine ecosystem. We demonstrate that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel burning are needed to minimise the coming pH decrease and that substantial reductions in nutrient loads are needed to reduce the coming increase in hypoxic and anoxic waters.

No abstract

Eutrophication is expanding worldwide, but its implication for production and bioaccumulation of neurotoxic monomethylmercury (MeHg) is unknown. We developed a mercury (Hg) biogeochemical model for the Baltic Sea and used it to investigate the impact of eutrophication on phytoplankton MeHg concentrations. For model evaluation, we measured total methylated Hg (MeHg) in the Baltic Sea and found low concentrations (39 ± 16 fM) above the halocline and high concentrations in anoxic waters (1249 ± 369 fM). To close the Baltic Sea MeHg budget, we inferred an average normoxic water column Hg methylation rate constant of 2 × 10 d. We used the model to compare Baltic Sea's present-day (2005-2014) eutrophic state to an oligo/mesotrophic scenario. Eutrophication increases primary production and export of organic matter and associated Hg to the sediment effectively removing Hg from the active biogeochemical cycle; this results in a 27% lower present-day water column Hg reservoir. However, increase in organic matter production and remineralization stimulates microbial Hg methylation resulting in a seasonal increase in both water and phytoplankton MeHg reservoirs above the halocline. Previous studies of systems dominated by external MeHg sources or benthic production found eutrophication to decrease MeHg levels in plankton. This Baltic Sea study shows that in systems with MeHg production in the normoxic water column eutrophication can increase phytoplankton MeHg content.

No abstract