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for the HBV 99-01 study group Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with advanced fibrosis are often not considered for treatment with peginterferon (PEG-IFN) because IFN therapy may precipitate immunological flares, potentially inducing hepatic decompensation. We investigated the efficacy and safety of treating hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive CHB patients with 52 weeks of PEG-IFN-␣-2b (100g weekly) alone or in combination with lamivudine (100 mg daily). Seventy patients with advanced fibrosis (Ishak fibrosis score 4 -6) and 169 patients without advanced fibrosis, all with compensated liver disease, participated in the study. Virologic response, defined as HBeAg seroconversion and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA < 10,000 copies/ml at week 78, occurred significantly more often in patients with advanced fibrosis than in those without (25% versus 12%, respectively; P ‫؍‬ 0.02). Also patients with cirrhosis (n ‫؍‬ 24) exhibited a virologic response more frequently than did patients without cirrhosis (30% versus 14%, respectively; P ‫؍‬ 0.02). Improvement in liver fibrosis occurred more frequently in patients with advanced fibrosis (66% versus 26%, P < 0.001). HBV genotype A was more prevalent among patients with advanced fibrosis than among those without (57% versus 24%, P < 0.001). Most adverse events, including serious adverse events, were observed equally as frequently in patients with advanced fibrosis and those without. Fatigue, anorexia, and thrombocytopenia occurred more often in patients with advanced fibrosis than in those without (P < 0.01). Necessary dose reduction or discontinuation of therapy was comparable for both patient groups (P ‫؍‬ 0.92 and P ‫؍‬ 0.47, respectively). Conclusion: PEG-IFN is effective and safe for HBeAg-positive patients with advanced fibrosis. Because PEG-IFN therapy results in a high rate of sustained off-therapy response, patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis but compensated liver disease should not be excluded from PEG-IFN treatment. (HEPATOLOGY 2007;46:388-394.)

Peginterferon (PEG-IFN) results in HBeAg loss combined with virologic response in only a minority of patients with HBeAg positive chronic hepatitis B. Baseline predictors of response to PEG-IFN include HBV-genotype, pre-treatment HBV DNA levels, and ALT. The aims of this study were to develop a model, which improves the baseline prediction of response to PEG-IFN for individual patients by including early HBV DNA measurements during treatment and to establish an early indication for cessation of treatment. One hundred thirty-six patients treated with PEG-IFN were included in the study. Response was defined as loss of HBeAg and HBV DNA <10,000 copies/ml at 26 weeks post-treatment. Logistic regression analysis techniques were used to develop a dynamic prediction model with HBV DNA during the first 32 weeks of therapy. An early clinically useful rule for dis(continuation) of treatment was identified with a grid of cut-off values of HBV DNA decline during treatment. Adding HBV DNA decline to baseline prediction increased c-statistics from 0.846 to 0.857, 0.855 to 0.866 at weeks 4, 12, and 24. A HBV DNA decline of at least 2 log(10) within 24 weeks was strongly associated with response when added to the baseline prediction model: OR 5.7 (95% CI: 1.70-20.0; P = 0.004). A dynamic model including HBV DNA decline during treatment provides more accurate predictions of response to PEG-IFN. The model strongly supports individual decision making on treatment (dis)continuation in patients with HBeAg positive chronic hepatitis B. It is recommended that PEG-IFN treatment is stopped by 24 weeks if HBV DNA declined <2 log(10).