A great deal has previously been written about the use of skeletal morphological changes in estimating ages-at-death. This article looks in particular at the pubic symphysis, as it was historically one of the first regions to be described in the literature on age estimation. Despite the lengthy history, the value of the pubic symphysis in estimating ages and in providing evidence for putative identifications remains unclear. This lack of clarity primarily stems from the fact that rather ad hoc statistical methods have been applied in previous studies. This article presents a statistical analysis of a large data set (n = 1766) of pubic symphyseal scores from multiple contexts, including anatomical collections, war dead, and victims of genocide. The emphasis is in finding statistical methods that will have the correct "coverage.""Coverage" means that if a method has a stated coverage of 50%, then approximately 50% of the individuals in a particular pubic symphyseal stage should have ages that are between the stated age limits, and that approximately 25% should be below the bottom age limit and 25% above the top age limit. In a number of applications it is shown that if an appropriate prior age-at-death distribution is used, then "transition analysis" will provide accurate "coverages," while percentile methods, range methods, and means (+/-standard deviations) will not. Even in cases where there are significant differences in the mean ages-to-transition between populations, the effects on the stated age limits for particular "coverages" are minimal. As a consequence, more emphasis needs to be placed on collecting data on age changes in large samples, rather than focusing on the possibility of inter-population variation in rates of aging.
One of the four pillars of the anthropological protocol is the estimation of sex. The protocol generally consists of linear metric analysis or visually assessing individual skeletal traits on the skull and pelvis based on an ordinal scale of 1-5, ranging from very masculine to very feminine. The morphologic traits are then some how averaged by the investigator to estimate sex. Some skulls may be misclassified because of apparent morphologic features that appear more or less robust due to size differences among individuals. The question of misclassification may be further exemplified in light of comparisons across populations that may differ not only in cranial robusticity but also in stature and general physique. The purpose of this study is to further examine the effect of size and sex on craniofacial shape among American populations to better understand the allometric foundation of skeletal traits currently used for sex estimation. Three-dimensional coordinates of 16 standard craniofacial landmarks were collected using a Microscribe-3DX digitizer. Data were collected for 118 American White and Black males and females from the W.M. Bass Donated Collection and the Forensic Data Bank. The MANCOVA procedure tested shape differences as a function of sex and size. Sex had a significant influence on shape for both American Whites (F = 2.90; d.f. = 19, 39; p > F = 0.0024) and Blacks (F = 2.81; d.f. = 19, 37; p > F = 0.0035), whereas size did not have a significant influence on shape in either Whites (F = 1.69; d.f. = 19, 39; p > F = 0.08) or Blacks (F = 1.09; d.f. = 19, 37; p > F = 0.40). Therefore, for each sex, individuals of various sizes were statistically the same shape. In other words, while significant differences were present between the size of males and females (males on average were larger), there was no size effect beyond that accounted for by sex differences in size. Moreover, the consistency between American groups is interesting as it suggests that population differences in sexual dimorphism may result more from human variation in size than allometric variation in craniofacial morphology.
The question of whether age parameters derived from an American population will reliably estimate age-at-death for East European skeletal populations is important since the ability to accurately estimate an individual's age-at-death hinges on what standard is used. A reference sample of identified individuals with known ages-at-death from the regions of the Former Yugoslavia (n = 861) is used to determine the age structure of victims and serves as the prior in the Bayesian analysis. Pubic symphyseal data in the manners of Todd (Am J Phys Anthropol, 3 [1920], 285; Am J Phys Anthropol, 4 [1921], 1) and Suchey-Brooks (Am J Phys Anthropol, 80 [1986], 167) were collected for n = 296 Balkan males and females and for n = 2078 American males and females. An analysis of deviance is calculated using an improvement chi-square to test for population variation in the aging processes of American and East European populations using proportional odds probit regression. When males and females are treated separately, there is a significant association among females and the population (df = 1, chi-square likelihood ratio = 15.071, p = 0.001). New age estimates for Balkan populations are provided and are based on the calculated age distribution from the Gompertz-Makeham hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density regions for each symphyseal phase are provided.
Subadult scurvy is not well documented in archeological human remains despite the existence of many biomedical references indicating that bone changes do occur in some cases and, because of this, should be observable in human burials. There are several potential reasons for this gap in our knowledge of scurvy. Not all children who suffered from scurvy died of the disease or from other causes when they had scurvy. Scurvy may not leave characteristic bone changes in every case of the disease. Some of the pathological conditions associated with scurvy have been known for many years, but these features may be rare or difficult to differentiate from other pathological conditions. Recently a lesion of the skull has been described that is probably pathognomonic for scurvy, specifically porous and sometimes hypertrophic lesions of the greater wing of the sphenoid. This lesion is bilateral and highly associated with evidence of inflammation at other anatomical sites in the skull. A survey of subadult skulls (N = 363) in the human skeletal collection from Peru at the National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, reveals a prevalence of 10% of skulls that exhibit plausible evidence of scurvy. Some cases of scurvy also have cribra orbitalia that has been attributed to anemia. In most of the Peruvian scurvy cases, anemia is an unlikely possibility because there is no evidence of marrow hyperplasia. This highlights the need for caution in using lesions of the orbit as an indicator of anemia when there is no other evidence of this disease elsewhere in the skeleton. Anatomical evidence of scurvy offers the potential of providing new and important evidence of diet in archeological human populations.
A new method for estimating adult age-at-death from the first rib was developed as a modification of the Kunos et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol 110 (1999) 303-323) method. Data were collected on three aspects of the first rib (costal face, rib head, and tubercle facet) for 470 known-age males of Balkan ancestry collected as evidence during investigations conducted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Ages-at-death range from 12 to 90 years (mean of 47.7 years). Several variables were extracted from the original study utilizing all three skeletal aspects of the first rib. This list was modified to 11 variables as preliminary tests on seriations of the samples were undertaken. A cumulative probit model with age measured on a log scale was used to calculate the mean and standard deviation of the ages-of-transition for each component. Multivariate analysis of the three components was also performed. The lowest correlation (r = 0.079, controlling for age) was between the geometric shape of the costal face and the surface texture of the tubercle facet. Assuming a correlation of zero, these two traits were used to calculate the highest posterior density regions for estimating individual ages-at-death. Age-at-death estimates generated from 50 and 95% posterior density regions indicate that this method captures age-related change reaching the ninth decade. The Bayesian statistical approach used here produced a valuable and promising new method for estimating age-at-death. Additional research is necessary to determine if these highest posterior density regions produce results highly correlated with age in other samples and its applicability to females.
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