1. Marine aquaculture relies on coastal habitats that will be affected by climate change. This review assesses current knowledge of the threats and opportunities of climate change for aquaculture in the UK and Ireland, focusing on the most commonly farmed species, blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). 2. There is sparse evidence to indicate that climate change is affecting aquaculture in the UK and Ireland. Impacts to date have been difficult to discern from natural environmental variability, and the pace of technological development in aquaculture overshadows effects of climatic change. However, this review of broader aquaculture literature and the likely effects of climate change suggests that over the next century, climate change has the potential to directly impact the industry. 3. Impacts are related to the industry's dependence on the marine environment for suitable biophysical conditions. For instance, changes in the frequency and strength of storms pose a risk to infrastructure, such as salmon cages. Sea-level rise will shift shoreline morphology, reducing the areal extent of some habitats that are suitable for the industry. Changes in rainfall patterns will increase the turbidity and nutrient loading of rivers, potentially triggering harmful algal blooms and negatively affecting bivalve farming. In addition, ocean acidification may disrupt the early developmental stages of shellfish. 4. Some of the most damaging but least predictable effects of climate change relate to the emergence, translocation and virulence of diseases, parasites and pathogens, although parasites and diseases in finfish aquaculture may be controlled through intervention. The spread of nuisance and non-native species is also potentially damaging. 5. Rising temperatures may create the opportunity to rear warmer water species in theUKand Ireland. Market forces, rather than technical feasibility, are likely to determine whether existing farmed species are displaced by new ones

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13Geomalacus maculosus is a slug species protected under EU law with a distribution limited to

Forest ecosystems across the Northwoods will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and land managers familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process.The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major forest trends and stressors currently threatening forests in the region. Observed trends in climate over the past century reveal that precipitation increased in the area, particularly in summer and fall, and that daily maximum temperatures increased, particularly in winter. Projected climate trends for the next 100 years using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 2 to 9 °F for the assessment area. Projections for precipitation indicate an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these future climate projections into three forest impact models (Tree Atlas, LANDIS-II, and PnET-CN). Model projections suggest that northern boreal species such as black spruce, quaking aspen, and paper birch may fare worse under future conditions, but other species may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and forest pests and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability. We assessed vulnerability for nine forest communities in the assessment area. The assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process of 19 science and management experts from across the area, who considered vulnerability in terms of the potential impacts and the adaptive capacity for an individual community. Upland spruce-fir, lowland conifers, aspen-birch, lowland-riparian hardwoods, and red pine forests were determined to be the most vulnerable ecosystems. White pine and oak forests were perceived as less vulnerable to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forestdependent wildlife and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning. ABSTRACT Cover PhotoLake of the Clouds in western Upper Michigan. Photo by Scott Pearson, used with permission.

& Key message Mature exotic Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis; Bong. Carrière)-dominated stands, particularly trees of greater circumference, result in greater numbers of Geomalacus maculosus (Allman) captures than adjacent clearfelled stands and adjacent peatland with Before-After-Control-Impact-Paired analysis indicating lower catches of G. maculosus post-felling. & Context The discovery of EU-protected Geomalacus maculosus in commercial plantations requires an understanding of the implications of forestry practices for the species within the context of sustainable forest management. & Aims 1. Compare Geomalacus maculosus captures across mature exotic Sitka spruce-dominated stands, previously clear-felled stands and adjacent peatland habitats. 2. Assess the suitability, for forest managers, of population estimate models for G. maculosus. 3. Assess the implications of felling by comparing relative abundances of G. maculosus directly before and after clear-felling at a mature exotic Sitka spruce-dominated stand. & Methods Geomalacus maculosus catches were compared at four sites across two to three mature (43-45 years old) conifer stands per site, one clear-felled stand per site, and one adjacent peatland per site using refuge traps and hand searching. Capturemark-recapture studies were undertaken to estimate population sizes. A BACIP (Before-After-Control-Impact-Paired) analysis was undertaken in one forest stand at one forest site to determine impacts of a clear-felling event.