Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, and Peter Lynch are three (3) famous investors’ gurus in the world that have already proved that they can outperform the market by value investing method. Method that they are using are based on fundamental analysis and they screen the company’s stock based on several key financial ratios and criteria that they found important in analyzing the company. In this project, Author conducted research and study to find out the applicability of the screening method made by the gurus in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) using equally weighted method, back testing it in May 2012 until December 2020 periods, and evaluate the performance of each type of portfolios made using Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, and Jensen’s alpha. The result of this project is all type of these portfolios are having positive risk adjusted returns. Peter Lynch type of portfolio is having the highest annualized return 24.04 % or 613 % cumulative return, while Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham are having annualized returns 9.42 % (or cumulative return 216.48%) and 8.3 % (or cumulative return 198.27%) respectively. Moreover, Author found that those three types of portfolios are having beta (β) nearly the same with one (1) means that the portfolios are having same risk with its systematic (market) risk.
Based on KSEI statistic data on March 2021, IDX individual stock market investor is increasing 199% compared to 2018 becoming 4,848,954 number of investors. 56.9% population of the individual investor is having ages that less than 30 years. In the period where IDX was bullish in November 2020 - January 2021, there is a phenomenon where stocks influencers appeared in social media and impacted to the stock price movement after the announcement is done by the influencer. In contrary, during bearish and sideways condition, those influencers were gone and changed with bad news that went viral where many individual investors are lost their capital in IDX. They lose money since they are gambling in the stock market without any analysis and no establishment of trading plan. This research is aimed as a strategy to individual investors in IDX to implement trading strategy based on Fibonacci retracements and projections, EMA lines, trendlines, stochastic, and volume. Back testing is conducted in IDX SMC Liquid index constituents during January 2018 until December 2020 period. By implementing this trading strategy, return generated is 164% for 3 years trading time frame. Author also found that this trading strategy is effective in bullish trend condition especially for individual investors that have long position.
Indonesia as the largest country in Southeast Asia have the highest GDP among the other countries in the region. In 2011, McKinsey & Company conducted a research to understand the annual consumer spending trend in Indonesia. According to the research, financial services will be the main consumption in Indonesia in 2030. Despite those promising situations, mutual fund industry in Indonesia was facing a big challenge in 2019. During 2019, Indonesia Financial Authority (OJK) has suspended 37 mismanaged mutual fund products from several investment managers. And actively managed mutual funds will have more exposure on this mismanagement risk. Aside from mismanagement and underperforming risk of actively managed mutual fund, investor also facing high risk of equity asset class. Recently, IDX Composite (IHSG) experience a tremendous -28% drop in Q1 2020. Biggest peak to bottom drawdown during that period was -37,49% from 14 January 2020 until 24 March 2020. This situation creates a challenge for mutual fund sales agent (APERD). But a challenging situation also offers opportunities. Mutual fund sales agent (APERD) that can offer optimum asset allocation suggestion that can give maximum risk protection can take advantage of these situation. One such unique strategy that has not been applied by other mutual fund sales agent (APERD) is risk parity that became popular after 2008 financial crisis. This research applied risk parity framework in passively managed mutual fund because most of actively managed mutual funds in Indonesia underperform the benchmark in the 10-year period. Because of that, passively managed mutual funds provide better investment opportunity. Four equity indexes (LQ45, Jakarta Islamic Index, Bisnis 27, and Sri Kehati) and one passively managed fixed income mutual fund (ABF Indonesia Bond Index Fund) that have existed for 10-year period was chosen to apply the risk parity method. Sharpe ratio calculation is used to evaluate the portfolio performance compared to commonly used portfolio strategy in the world according to 2018 Legg Mason Global Investment Survey. Result of the analysis is that risk parity portfolio offer better Sharpe ratio compared to commonly used portfolio strategy in the world. Result of 2009 - April 2020 back-testing process also show that risk parity can protect investor from equity market downturn in 77.3% of the case. With above result, risk parity can offer better risk protection for Indonesia individual investor.
This study is conducted to carry out the risk management process in the logistics department of the electricity company unit, which has the main duties in managing electricity transmission assets, controlling investment and logistics transmission, and maintaining transmission assets. The risk management process in this study was prepared as a step in shaping the risk profile of business processes in the logistics field to avoid the failure of business processes that resulted in unavailbility of logistics material, which could impact the electricity transmission. This study uses the AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 Risk Management Standard framework. Calculation of risk priorities is using Analytical Hierarchy Process, based on a questionnaire to experts in the field of company logistics. From the calculation using AHP, Work Accident (HR2) has been identified as the most vulnerable risk among others risk factors.
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