The incidence of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is rapidly increasing. A growing part of this patient group is formed by immunocompromised patients, for example organ‐transplant recipients (OTR). Although over 90% of the cSCC show a relatively harmless clinical behaviour, there is also a chance of developing advanced cSCC and metastases. Locally advanced cSCC are defined as cSCC that have locally advanced progression and are no longer amenable to surgery or radiation therapy. Better understanding of the clinical behaviour of cSCC is essential to discriminate between low‐ and high‐risk cSCC. Staging systems are important and have recently been improved. Genetic characterisation of SCC will likely become an important tool to help distinguish low and high‐risk cSCC with an increased potential to metastasise in the near future. Available treatments for high‐risk and advanced cSCC include surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy and targeted therapy with epidermal growth factor receptors inhibitors. Anti‐PD‐1 antibodies show promising results with response rates of up to 50% in both locally advanced and metastatic cSCC but, in its present form, is not suitable for OTR.

ImportanceThe Skin and UV Neoplasia Transplant Risk Assessment Calculator (SUNTRAC) tool has been developed in the US to facilitate the identification of solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) at a higher risk of developing skin cancer. However, it has not yet been validated in populations other than the one used for its creation.ObjectiveTo provide an external validation of the SUNTRAC tool in different SOTR populations.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis retrospective external validation prognostic study used data from a prospectively collected cohort of European SOTRs from transplant centers at teaching hospitals in the Netherlands (1995-2016) and Spain (2011-2021). Participants were screened and followed up at dermatology departments. Data were analyzed from September to October 2021.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe discrimination ability of the SUNTRAC tool was assessed via a competing risk survival analysis, cumulative incidence plots, and Wolbers concordance index. Calibration of the SUNTRAC tool was assessed through comparison of projected skin cancer incidences. Skin cancer diagnoses included squamous cell carcinoma, basal cell carcinoma, melanoma, and Merkel cell carcinoma.ResultsA total of 3421 SOTRs (median age at transplant, 53 [quartile 1: 42; quartile 3: 62] years; 2132 [62.3%] men) were assessed, including 72 Asian patients (2.1%), 137 Black patients (4.0%), 275 Latinx patients (8.0%), 109 Middle Eastern and North African patients (3.2%), and 2828 White patients (82.7%). With a total of 23 213 years of follow-up time, 603 patients developed skin cancer. The SUNTRAC tool classified patients into 4 groups with significantly different risks of developing skin cancer during follow-up. Overall, the relative rate for developing skin cancer estimated using subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and using the low-risk group as the reference group, increased according to the proposed risk group (medium-risk group: SHR, 6.8 [95% CI, 3.8-12.1]; P < .001; high-risk group: SHR, 15.9 [95% CI, 8.9-28.4]; P < .001; very-high–risk group: SHR, 54.8 [95% CI, 29.1-102.9]; P < .001), with a concordance index of 0.72. Actual skin cancer incidences were similar to those predicted by the SUNTRAC tool (5-year skin cancer cumulative incidence for medium-risk group: predicted, 6.2%; observed, 7.0%).Conclusions and RelevanceThe findings of this external validation prognostic study support the use of the SUNTRAC tool in European populations for stratifying SOTRs based on their skin cancer risk and also detecting patients at a high risk of developing skin cancer. This can be helpful in prioritizing and providing better screening and surveillance for these patients.

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