One of the central interests of animal movement ecology is relating movement characteristics to behavioural characteristics. The traditional discrete-time statistical tool for inferring unobserved behaviours from movement data is the hidden Markov model (HMM).While the HMM is an important and powerful tool, sometimes it is not flexible enough to appropriately fit the data. Data for marine animals often exhibit conditional autocorrelation, self-dependence of the step length process which cannot be explained solely by the behavioural state, which violates one of the main assumptions of the HMM. Using a grey seal track as an example, along with multiple simulation scenarios, we motivate and develop the conditionally autoregressive hidden Markov model (CarHMM), which is a generalization of the HMM designed specifically to handle conditional autocorrelation.In addition to introducing and examining the new CarHMM, we provide guidelines for all stages of an analysis using either an HMM or CarHMM. These include guidelines for pre-processing location data to obtain deflection angles and step lengths, model selection, and model checking. In addition to these practical guidelines, we link estimated model parameters to biologically meaningful quantities such as activity budget and residency time. We also provide interpretations of traditional "foraging" and "transiting" behaviours in the context of the new CarHMM parameters.
Bycatch in commercial fisheries is a pressing conservation concern and has spurred global interest in adopting ecosystem-based management practices. To address such concerns, a thorough understanding of spatiotemporal relationships among bycatch species, their environment and fisheries is required. Here we used a generalized linear mixed model framework incorporating spatiotemporal random effects to model abundance patterns for 3 skate species caught as bycatch in commercial fisheries (thorny skate Amblyraja radiata, winter skate Leucoraja ocellata and smooth skate Malacoraja senta), as well as 10 target species on the Scotian Shelf, NW Atlantic. Spatiotemporal estimates of relative abundance for at-risk skates within the years 2005-2015 were modelled from research trawl survey data and overlaid with those for target species to identify hotspots of bycatch risk. In addition, abundance estimates for at-risk skates within the years 1975-1985, a period of higher stock abundance, were used to identify areas of previously important habitat. Historically, skate species densely occupied areas near Sable Island and Banquereau Banks, Georges Bank and the Bay of Fundy. Bycatch hotspots between at-risk skates and commercial targets were identified in regions across the Scotian Shelf. These hotspots were independently validated by predicting species presence from at-sea observer data that monitor skate bycatch directly. We discuss spatial relationships between target and bycatch species, highlighting limitations of at-sea observer programmes that this method helps to address. This framework can be applied more broadly to inform ecosystem management and priority areas for conservation or fisheries regulation.
Spatio‐temporal datasets that are difficult to analyse are commonly derived from ecological surveys. There are software packages available to analyse these datasets, but many of them require advanced coding skills. There is a growing need for easy‐to‐use packages that researchers can use to analyse common ecological datasets.
We develop a particular generalized linear mixed model framework for spatio‐temporal point‐referenced data that is flexible enough to accommodate data from most ecological surveys while being structured enough to facilitate analyses without advanced coding. Our implementation in the starve package uses a computationally efficient version of a nearest‐neighbour Gaussian process enabling analysis of relatively large datasets.
A tutorial analysis of a Carolina wren survey presents a recommended workflow for analyses while showcasing the capabilities of the package.
Our model and package are tools that can easily be added to researchers' routine to help make sense of data from ecological surveys. We emphasize the ability of our model to create fine‐scale spatio‐temporal predictions which can then be used to visualize and identify important trends in species distributions.
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