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TAKEOVER RISK AND THE MARKET FOR CORPORATE CONTROL: THE EXPERIENCE OF BRITISH FIRMS IN THE 1970S AND 1980SAndrew P Dickerson †, Heather D Gibson ‡# and Euclid Tsakalotos# January 1998 Abstract This paper investigates the determinants of takeovers in a large sample of UK quoted companies. We focus on the channels through which the market for corporate control monitors company performance and discretionary managerial behaviour. Our results indicate that the market for corporate control disciplines poorly performing companies, and that this effect is quantitatively important: a one standard deviation increase in profitability is associated with a fall in the conditional probability of takeover of over 20%. However, we find no evidence that firms without apparent profitable investment opportunities are more likely to be taken over if managers increase investment or reduce dividends, contrary to the predictions of the free cash-flow theory of takeovers.JEL Classification: L1, G3, C41
This paper provides a unifying framework in which identified offset and sterilization equations can be derived and estimated. The theoretical model suggests that, in the case where the central bank cares about both external and internal goals and capital is less than perfectly mobile, there will be some offsetting capital flows and the central bank will sterilize. Several results from the literature are encompassed as special cases. The equations are estimated for the German experience of the 1980s and the results point to active sterilization by the Bundesbank during this period.
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