In this paper we empirically analyse the factors which determined consumer credit in Greece in the period before and after the financial liberalisation, while accounting for significant changes in structure due to the lifting of credit restrictions and the subsequent impressive boom of consumer loans. We use multivariate cointegration techniques to estimate a vector error correction model (VECM) and identify separate demand and supply relationships for consumer loans. We introduce demand and supply-related shifts in parameters through the inclusion of appropriate dummy variables and trends in the long-run relationships. We partly deviate from the typical Johansen procedure and estimate the model in two steps. We find that the theoretical exclusion and coefficient-size restrictions on the demand and supply cointegrating vectors are valid. Our results are consistent with the operation of a bank lending channel in Greece. We also find that the supply side was mostly responsible for the acceleration of consumer loan growth following credit liberalisation.JEL classification: E51;G21;O16;C32

In this paper, we extend results from the finance literature that explores small sample bias, due to persistent variables, in tests of present value asset pricing models. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we investigate the finite sample behaviour of standard tests of the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure, when interest rates are increasingly persistent. We document bias for the 'perfect foresight spread' regression and find that the variance bound statistic strongly tends to favour the EH when persistence is high. In a vector autoregression (VAR) framework, the Wald test and the slope of the ordinary least squares test using the 'VAR-theoretical spread' are strongly biased.

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