BACKGROUND Prediction of mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is key to improving the clinical outcomes, considering that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to the collapse of healthcare systems in many regions worldwide. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to identify the factors associated with COVID-19 mortality and to develop a nomogram for predicting mortality using clinical parameters and underlying diseases. METHODS This study was performed in 5,626 patients with confirmed COVID-19 between February 1 and April 30, 2020 in South Korea. A Cox proportional hazards model and logistic regression model were used to construct a nomogram for predicting 30-day and 60-day survival probabilities and overall mortality, respectively in the train set. Calibration and discrimination were performed to validate the nomograms in the test set. RESULTS Age ≥70 years; male; presence of fever and dyspnea at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis; and diabetes mellitus, cancer, or dementia as underling diseases were significantly related to 30-day and 60-day survival and mortality in COVID-19 patients. The areas under the curve (AUCs) for 30-day and 60-day survival was 0.914 and 0.954, respectively (C-index, 0.906; 95% CI, 0.883-0.929); the AUC for mortality of 0.926. The nomogram showed good calibration for survival probabilities and mortality. The online calculators can be found at https://koreastat.shinyapps.io/RiskofCOVID19/. CONCLUSIONS The prediction model could accurately predict COVID-19-related mortality; thus, it would be helpful for identifying the risk of mortality and establishing medical policies during the pandemic to improve the clinical outcomes. CLINICALTRIAL not applicable
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.