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Shrub encroachment linked to heavy grazing has dramatically changed savanna landscapes, and is a major form of rangeland degradation. Our understanding of how shrub encroachment aVects arthropod communities is poor, however. Here, we investigate the eVects of shrub encroachment on abundance and diversity of ground-dwelling (wingless) arthropods at varying levels of shrub cover in the southern Kalahari. We also ascertain if invertebrate assemblage composition changes with habitat structure and identify which aspects of habitat structure (e.g., grass cover, herbaceous plant cover, shrub density) correlate most strongly with these changes. Ant, scorpion and dung beetle abundance increased with shrub cover, whereas grasshoppers and solifuges declined. Spider and beetle abundance exhibited hump-shaped relationships with shrub cover. RTU richness within orders either mirrored abundances, or exhibited no trend. Shrub density was the habitat component most correlated with similarities between invertebrate assemblages. Ground-dwelling arthropods showed clear shifts in species assemblage composition at a similarity level of 65% according to shrub density. Changes in indicator species showed that within the Tenebrionidae (darkling beetles), certain species respond positively to shrub thickening, replacing other species within the Family. Small-bodied, wingless Scarabaeidae (dung beetles) tended to increase with increased shrub density and three species emerged as signiWcant indicators of more thickened habitats, although this might be a response to greater dung availability, rather than habitat structure itself. We conclude that because ground-dwelling

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Empirical species distribution models (SDMs) constitute often the tool of choice for the assessment of rapid climate change eff ects on species ' vulnerability. Conclusions regarding extinction risks might be misleading, however, because SDMs do not explicitly incorporate dispersal or other demographic processes. Here, we supplement SDMs with a dynamic population model 1) to predict climate-induced range dynamics for black grouse in Switzerland, 2) to compare direct and indirect measures of extinction risks, and 3) to quantify uncertainty in predictions as well as the sources of that uncertainty. To this end, we linked models of habitat suitability to a spatially explicit, individual-based model. In an extensive sensitivity analysis, we quantifi ed uncertainty in various model outputs introduced by diff erent SDM algorithms, by diff erent climate scenarios and by demographic model parameters. Potentially suitable habitats were predicted to shift uphill and eastwards. By the end of the 21st century, abrupt habitat losses were predicted in the western Prealps for some climate scenarios. In contrast, population size and occupied area were primarily controlled by currently negative population growth and gradually declined from the beginning of the century across all climate scenarios and SDM algorithms. However, predictions of population dynamic features were highly variable across simulations. Results indicate that inferring extinction probabilities simply from the quantity of suitable habitat may underestimate extinction risks because this may ignore important interactions between life history traits and available habitat. Also, in dynamic range predictions uncertainty in SDM algorithms and climate scenarios can become secondary to uncertainty in dynamic model components. Our study emphasises the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis in order to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. A more direct benefi t of such robustness analysis is an improved mechanistic understanding of dynamic species ' responses to climate change.

Shrub encroachment caused by overgrazing has led to dramatic changes of savannah landscapes and is considered one of the most threatening forms of rangeland degradation leading to habitat fragmentation. Although changes to plant assemblages are becoming better known, however, our understanding of how shrub encroachment affects rodent communities is low. In this study, we investigated relative abundance of five rodent species in sixteen southern Kalahari rangelands where shrub cover ranged from low (<5%) to high (>25%). Rodent abundance was determined on three trapping grids (40 × 100 m) for each site. Our results show that increasing shrub cover affected rodent species differently. The relative abundance of hairy‐footed gerbil, short‐tailed gerbil and bushveld gerbil declined with increasing shrub cover, whereas highveld gerbil and striped mouse exhibited hump‐shaped relationships with shrub cover. Overall, species richness decreased with increasing shrub cover and a negative impact of high shrub cover above 15% on rodent abundance was congruent for all species. We conclude that our results support the hypothesis that long‐term heavy grazing that results in area wide shrub encroachment, threatens the diversity of arid environments.