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Suppressing SARS-CoV-2 will likely require the rapid identification and isolation of infected individuals, on an ongoing basis. RT-PCR (reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) tests are accurate but costly, making regular testing of every individual expensive. The costs are a challenge for all countries and particularly for developing countries. Cost reductions can be achieved by combining samples and testing them in groups. We propose an algorithm for grouping subsamples, prior to testing, based on the geometry of a hypercube. At low prevalence, this testing procedure uniquely identifies infected individuals in a small number of tests. We discuss the optimal group size and explain why, given the highly infectious nature of the disease, parallel searches are preferred. We report proof of concept experiments in which a positive sample was detected even when diluted a hundred-fold with negative samples. Using these methods, the costs of mass testing could be reduced by a factor of ten to a hundred or more. If infected individuals are quickly and effectively quarantined, the prevalence will fall and so will the costs of regularly testing everyone. Such a strategy provides a possible pathway to the longterm elimination of SARS-CoV-2. Field trials of our approach are now under way in Rwanda and initial data from these are reported here. * nturok@perimeterinstitute.ca † wndifon@nexteinstein.org . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
ObjectiveNew guidelines recommend that all HIV-infected individuals initiate antiretroviral treatment (ART) immediately following diagnosis. This study describes how immune reconstitution varies by gender and age to help identify poorly reconstituting subgroups and inform targeted testing initiatives.DesignLongitudinal data from the outpatient monitoring system of the National AIDS Control Program in Tanzania.MethodsAn asymptotic nonlinear mixed effects model was fit to post-treatment CD4+ cell count trajectories, allowing for fixed effects of age and sex, and an age by sex interaction.ResultsAcross 220,544 clinic visits from 32,069 HIV-infected patients, age- and sex-specific average CD4+ cell count at ART initiation ranged from 83–136 cells/mm3, long term asymptotic CD4+ cell count ranged from 301–389 cells/mm3, and time to half of maximal CD4+ reconstitution ranged from 3.57–5.68 months. CD4+ cell count at ART initiation and asymptotic CD4+ cell count were 1.28 (95% CI: 1.18–1.40) and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.20–1.31) times higher, respectively, for females compared to males in the youngest age group (19–29 years). Older patients started treatment at higher CD4+ counts but experienced slower CD4+ recovery than younger adults. Treatment initiation at greater CD4+ cell counts was correlated with greater asymptotic CD4+ cell counts within all sex and age groups.ConclusionOlder adults should initiate care early in disease progression because total immune reconstitution potential and rate of reconstitution appears to decrease with age. Targeted HIV testing and care linkage remains crucial for patient populations who tend to initiate treatment at lower CD4+ cell counts, including males and younger adults.
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