To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise

We present the first densely-sampled hydrographic survey of the Amundsen Sea Polynya (ASP) region, including a detailed characterization of its freshwater distributions. Multiple components contribute to the freshwater budget, including precipitation, sea ice melt, basal ice shelf melt, and iceberg melt, from local and non-local sources. We used stable oxygen isotope ratios in seawater (d 18 O) to distinguish quantitatively the contributions from sea ice and meteoric-derived sources. Meteoric fractions were high throughout the winter mixed layer (WML), with maximum values of 2-3% (±0.5%). Because the ASP region is characterized by deep WMLs, column inventories of total meteoric water were also high, ranging from 10-13 m (±2 m) adjacent to the Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS) and in the deep trough to 7-9 m (±2 m) in shallower areas. These inventories are at least twice those reported for continental shelf waters near the western Antarctic Peninsula. Sea ice melt fractions were mostly negative, indicating net (annual) sea ice formation, consistent with this area being an active polynya. Independently determined fractions of subsurface glacial meltwater (as one component of the total meteoric inventory) had maximum values of 1-2% (±0.5%), with highest and shallowest maximum values at the DIS outflow (80-90 m) and in iceberg-stirred waters (150-200 m). In addition to these upwelling sites, contributions of subsurface glacial meltwater could be traced at depth along the ~ 27.6 isopycnal, from which it mixes into the WML through various processes. Our results suggest a quasi-continuous supply of melt-laden iron-enriched seawater to the euphotic zone of the ASP and help to explain why the ASP is Antarctica's most biologically productive polynya per unit area.