The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5–7°C between the 1961–1990 reference period and the period 2070–2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe – Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The ensemble results of CMIP5 climate models that applied the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used to investigate climate change and temperature extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Uncertainty evaluation of climate projections indicates good model agreement for temperature but much less for precipitation. Results imply that climate warming in the MENA is strongest in summer while elsewhere it is typically stronger in winter. The summertime warming extends the thermal low at the surface from South Asia across the Middle East over North Africa, as the hot desert climate intensifies and becomes more extreme. Observations and model calculations of the recent past consistently show increasing heat extremes, which are projected to accelerate in future. The number of warm days and nights may increase sharply. On average in the MENA, the maximum temperature during the hottest days in the recent past was about 43°C, which could increase to about 46°C by the middle of the century and reach almost 50°C by the end of the century, the latter according to the RCP8.5 (business-as-usual) scenario. This will have important consequences for human health and society.

[1] The Active Red Sea Trough (ARST) is an infrequent weather phenomenon that is associated with extreme precipitation, flash floods, and severe societal impacts in the Middle East (ME). Using reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and observational precipitation (Aphrodite and stations) data, we investigate its underlying dynamics, geographical extent, and seasonality. Twelve ARST events affecting the Levant have the same dynamical characteristics as those associated with a major flood in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) on 25 November 2009. Hence, the Jeddah flooding was caused by an ARST, which implies that ARSTs can affect a much larger part of the ME than previously assumed. We present an ARST concept involving six dynamical factors: (1) a low-level trough; the Red Sea Trough (RST), (2) an anticyclone over the Arabian Peninsula; the Arabian Anticyclone (AA), (3) a transient midlatitude upper trough, (4) an intensified subtropical jet stream, (5) moisture transport pathways, and (6) strong ascent resulting from tropospheric instability and the synoptic-scale dynamical forcing. We explain the ARST as the interaction of a persistent stationary wave in the tropical easterlies (i.e., the RST) with a superimposed amplifying Rossby wave, resulting in northward propagating moist air masses over the Red Sea. Our findings emphasize the relevance of the AA, causing moisture transport from the Arabian and Red Seas. The particular topography in the Red Sea region and associated low-level circulation makes the ARST unique among tropical-extratropical interactions. The ARST seasonality is explained by the large-scale circulation and in particular the seasonal cycle of the semipermanent quasi-stationary RST and AA.

Rossby wave breaking on the dynamical tropopause in the Southern Hemisphere (the Ϫ2-PVU surface) is investigated using the ERA-40 dataset. The indication of wave breaking is based on reversal in the meridional gradient of potential temperature, and persistent large-scale wave breaking is taken as a strong indication that blocking may be present. Blocking in the midlatitudes is found to occur predominantly during wintertime in the Pacific and is most vigorous in the east Pacific, while during summertime, the frequency of blocking weakens and its extent becomes confined to the west Pacific. The interannual variability of blocking is found to be high. Wave breaking occurs most frequently on the poleward side of the polar jet and has some, but not all, of the signatures of blocking, so it is referred to as high-latitude blocking. In general, cyclonic wave breaking occurs on the poleward side of the polar jet, otherwise anticyclonic breaking occurs. However, at least in wintertime, wave breaking in the New Zealand/west to mid-Pacific sector between the polar and subtropical jets is a mixture between cyclonic and anticyclonic types. Together, episodes of wave breaking and enhanced westerly flow describe much of the variability in the seasonal Antarctic Oscillation (AnO) index and give a synoptic manifestation of it with a focus on the date line and Indian Ocean that is in agreement with the centers of action for the AnO. During summertime, anticyclonic wave breaking in the upper troposphere is also to be found near 30°S in both the Pacific and Atlantic, and appears to be associated with Rossby waves propagating into the subtropics from the New Zealand region.

A comprehensive climatology of Northern Hemisphere blocking is described based on a PV-wavebreaking index at the latitude of the climatological storm track and using the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset. The general characterization of blocking regions is in agreement with most other studies, though more detail is provided here. In the annual average, blocking is most prevalent in the large region from the eastern Atlantic Ocean through Europe to central Asia with a secondary region in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Using a blocking criterion with the requirement for both longitudinal extent and temporal persistence, the peak in the frequency is in the Scandinavian region, where 24% of the days are characterized by blocking. In the east Pacific maximum, the corresponding number is 7%. However, there is considerable and very important interannual variability. The decay rate in the number of blocking events lasting at least a specified number of days is significantly less over Europe than elsewhere. However, the average intensity of blocking episodes is slightly higher in the east Pacific. The mean annual cycle of blocking is quite complex. Over most of Europe it continues through the year, with maximum intensities in the autumn and winter. To both the east and west, over the western Atlantic and Asia, there are two periods in the year of highest blocking frequency. Similar two-cycle behavior is found in the eastern Pacific region. The relationship of blocking with the storm track and the mean planetary-scale geopotential ridges is considered, and the evidence that blocking is a particular phenomenon with its own nonlinear dynamics is discussed.