Summary In his foundational list of ‘ideal weed’ characteristics, Baker (1965) proposed that weedy plants maximize reproductive output under high resource availability. Since then, the idea that invasive plant species are more responsive to fluctuating resources compared with native or noninvasive species has gained considerable traction, although few studies extend this hypothesis to include reproductive output. We revisit Baker's hypothesis in the context of invasion and drought in California grasslands, exploring whether invasives show greater growth and reproductive responses to water availability compared with the native wildflowers they displace. In an outdoor potted study, we grew eight native and eight invasive species of annuals commonly found in southern California grasslands to reproductive maturity under both well‐watered and drought conditions. While drought negatively impacted plant performance overall, invasives showed more negative responses for growth and reproductive traits. Invasives also grew larger than native species, especially under well‐watered conditions, and produced seed with higher rates of germination. Invasives may be more negatively impacted by drought compared with natives, but they are also able to capitalize on high resource conditions and greatly increase reproductive output. Such opportunistic responses exhibited by invasives might explain previously observed fluctuations in their abundance under variable precipitation.