Purpose This study aimed to: (1) determine the accuracy of Dutch breast cancer survivors’ estimations of the locoregional recurrence risk (LRR); (2) examine which variables influence (the accuracy of) risk estimations, and risk appraisals; and (3) investigate the influence of the objective LRR risk (estimated using the INFLUENCE-nomogram), risk estimations and risk appraisals on fear of cancer recurrence (FCR). Findings of this study will inform clinicians on risk communication and can improve communication about FCR. Methods In a cross-sectional survey among 258 breast cancer survivors, women’s recurrence risk estimations (in odds) and risk appraisals (in high/low), FCR, demographics and illness perceptions, about one year after surgery were measured and compared to the objective risk for LRRs estimated using the INFLUENCE-nomogram. Results Half of the women (54%) accurately estimated their LRR risk, 34% underestimated and 13% overestimated their risk. Risk estimations and risk appraisals were only moderately positively correlated (r = 0.58). Higher risk appraisals were associated with radiotherapy (r = 0.18) and having weaker cure beliefs (r = − 0.19). Younger age was associated with overestimation of risk (r = − 0.23). Recurrence risk estimations and risk appraisals were associated with more FCR (r = 0.29, r = 0.39). In regression, only risk appraisal contributed significantly to FCR. Conclusion Although women were fairly accurate in recurrence risk estimations, it remains difficult to predict over- or underestimation. Recurrence risk estimations and risk appraisal are two different concepts which are both associated with FCR and should therefore be addressed in patient-provider communication.