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ABSTRACT. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the robustness of the Grant, Vora & Weeks and Least Square Monte Carlo Methods when used to evaluate renewable generation projects developed according to the rules of the Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism. The proposed methodology makes use of the NEWAVE model in order to generate futures dispatch sequences for all generators connected to the Brazilian grid. After that, based on the methodology ACM0002, the uncertainty associated to the time evolution of the project's baseline is considered. Finally, the carbon market' incremental payoff is estimated using the Real Options Approach. In order to do that, the numerical methods previously mentioned are used under the assumption that the behavior of the carbon price is random and that the price follows a Geometric Brownian Motion.

The objective of this work is to present a methodology capable of estimating the incremental payoff of the carbon market for grid-connected renewable power generation projects in Brazil. The proposed methodology consists of using the NEWAVE model to determine the optimal operating policy for the Brazilian Interconnected System over the medium-term, and to establish hydrological dispatch scenarios for the power plants connected to this system. Based on these results, the criteria defined in the methodology ACM0002 were used to estimate the baseline of the projects developed in response to the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol. Having estimated the baseline for the project, the incremental payoff obtained from the sale of Certified Emission Reductions is estimated using the real options theory. Subsequently, the value of the option is added to the conventional cash flow of the project, determining the impact of the carbon market on its internal rate of return.

This paper aims to evaluate the implications of Eucalyptus woodchip utilization as an alternative solid fuel for thermal power plants, highlighting its energy properties, power generation expenses and unit variable costs. Woodchip samples were collected from different sources and a proximate analysis was carried out in order to determine their moisture content, basic and bulk densities, ash content and higher heating value. Then, with these properties, empirical indices of a 10-megawatt thermal power plant were used to simulate the potential woodchip consumption, the forest area needed and the unit variable cost (US$•MWh −1 ) for each sample. The results indicate that woodchip samples with lower moisture content and improved higher heating value presented: reduced woodchip consumption for the same power generation, decreased generation expenses, reduced unit variable costs and smaller Eucalyptus plantations area needed to supply the woodchip consumption. Greater energy density may result in lower transportation and storage expenses, however, does not indicate better generation performance, since it is influenced by biomass field conditions. All samples obtained satisfactory levels of ash content, which may result in lower emissions of pollutants and superior operational efficiency. Finally, all samples presented unit variable costs below the limit established by the government for participation in the regulated energy market, which might be an economic attraction for this kind of project. Therefore, Eucalyptus woodchip moisture content, higher heating value and energy density are key issues in sustainable thermal power generation and should be managed by Eucalyptus power plants in order to reach better generation performance and reduced expenses.