Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6–77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583)

Purpose: Recent studies showed that pericardial fat was independently correlated with the development of coronary artery disease (CAD). The mechanism remains unclear. We aimed at assessing a possible relationship between pericardial fat volume and endothelium-dependent coronary vasomotion, a surrogate of future cardiovascular events. Methods: Fifty healthy volunteers without known CAD or cardiovascular risk factors (CRF) were enrolled. They all underwent a dynamic Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT to quantify myocardial blood flow (MBF) at rest, during MBF response to cold pressure test (CPT-MBF) and adenosine stress. Pericardial fat volume (PFV) was measured using a 3D volumetric CT method and common biological CRF (glucose and insulin levels, HOMA-IR, cholesterol, triglyceride, hs-CRP). Relationships between MBF response to CPT, PFV and other CRF were assessed using non-parametric Spearman correlation and multivariate regression analysis of variables with significant correlation on univariate analysis (Stata 11.0). Results: All of the 50 participants had normal MBF response to adenosine (2.7±0.6 mL/min/g; 95%CI: 2.6−2.9) and myocardial flow reserve (2.8±0.8; 95%CI: 2.6−3.0) excluding underlying CAD. Simple regression analysis revealed a significant correlation between absolute CPT-MBF and triglyceride level (rho = −0.32, p = 0.024) fasting blood insulin (rho = −0.43, p = 0.0024), HOMA-IR (rho = −0.39, p = 0.007) and PFV (rho = −0.52, p = 0.0001). MBF response to adenosine was only correlated with PFV (rho = −0.32, p = 0.026). On multivariate regression analysis PFV emerged as the only significant predictor of MBF response to CPT (p = 0.002). Conclusion: PFV is significantly correlated with endothelium-dependent coronary vasomotion. High PF burden might negatively influence MBF response to CPT, as well as to adenosine stress, even in persons with normal hyperemic myocardial perfusion imaging, suggesting a link between PF and future cardiovascular events. While outside-to-inside adipokines secretion through the arterial wall has been described, our results might suggest an effect upon NO-dependent and -independent vasodilatation. Further studies are needed to elucidate this mechanism. Background: A potentially interesting application of multidetector computed tomography angiography (CTA) would be the identification of patients or lesions that have an increased likelihood of plaque rupture leading to acute coronary events. Several previous studies have identified that plaques with spotty calcifications on CTA have been related to presence of acute coronary syndrome. The purpose of the study was to compare calcifications patterns in plaques on CTA to vulnerable plaque characteristics on virtual histology ultrasound (VH IVUS). Methods: Overall, 108 patients underwent CTA and VH IVUS. On CTA, calcification patterns in plaques were classified as non-calcified, spotty or dense calcifications. Plaques with spotty calcifications were differentiated into small spotty (<1 mm), intermediate spotty (1−3 mm) and large spotty calcificatio...

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