As the role played by statistical and computational sciences in climate and environmental modelling and prediction becomes more important, Machine Learning researchers are becoming more aware of the relevance of their work to help tackle the climate crisis. Indeed, being universal nonlinear function approximation tools, Machine Learning algorithms are efficient in analysing and modelling spatially and temporally variable environmental data. While Deep Learning models have proved to be able to capture spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal dependencies through their automatic feature representation learning, the problem of the interpolation of continuous spatio-temporal fields measured on a set of irregular points in space is still under-investigated. To fill this gap, we introduce here a framework for spatio-temporal prediction of climate and environmental data using deep learning. Specifically, we show how spatio-temporal processes can be decomposed in terms of a sum of products of temporally referenced basis functions, and of stochastic spatial coefficients which can be spatially modelled and mapped on a regular grid, allowing the reconstruction of the complete spatio-temporal signal. Applications on two case studies based on simulated and real-world data will show the effectiveness of the proposed framework in modelling coherent spatio-temporal fields.
Complex non-linear time series are ubiquitous in geosciences. Quantifying complexity and non-stationarity of these data is a challenging task, and advanced complexity-based exploratory tool are required for understanding and visualizing such data. This paper discusses the Fisher-Shannon method, from which one can obtain a complexity measure and detect non-stationarity, as an efficient data exploration tool. The state-of-the-art studies related to the Fisher-Shannon measures are collected, and new analytical formulas for positive unimodal skewed distributions are proposed. Case studies on both synthetic and real data illustrate the usefulness of the Fisher-Shannon method, which can find application in different domains including time series discrimination and generation of times series features for clustering, modeling and forecasting. The paper is accompanied with Python and R libraries for the non-parametric estimation of the proposed measures.
1Hz wind time series recorded at different levels (from 1.5 to 25.5 meters) in an urban area are investigated by using the Fisher-Shannon (FS) analysis. FS analysis is a well known method to get insight of the complex behavior of nonlinear systems, by quantifying the order/disorder properties of time series. Our findings reveal that the FS complexity, defined as the product between the Fisher Information Measure and the Shannon entropy power, decreases with the height of the anemometer from the ground, suggesting a height-dependent variability in the order/disorder features of the high frequency wind speed measured in urban layouts. Furthermore, the correlation between the FS complexity of wind speed and the daily variance of the ambient temperature shows similar decrease with the height of the wind sensor. Such correlation is larger for the lower anemometers, indicating that ambient temperature is an important forcing of the wind speed variability in the vicinity of the ground.
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