[1] The hydrometeorological model SIM consists of a meteorological analysis system (SAFRAN), a land surface model (ISBA), and a hydrogeological model (MODCOU). It generates atmospheric forcing at an hourly time step, and it computes water and surface energy budgets, the river flow at more than 900 river-gauging stations, and the level of several aquifers. SIM was extended over all of France in order to have a homogeneous nationwide monitoring of the water resources: it can therefore be used to forecast flood risk and to monitor drought risk over the entire nation. The hydrometeorological model was applied over a 10-year period from 1995 to 2005. In this paper the databases used by the SIM model are presented; then the 10-year simulation is assessed by using the observations of daily streamflow, piezometric head, and snow depth. This assessment shows that SIM is able to reproduce the spatial and temporal variabilities of the water fluxes. The efficiency is above 0.55 (reasonable results) for 66% of the simulated river gauges, and above 0.65 (rather good results) for 36% of them. However, the SIM system produces worse results during the driest years, which is more likely due to the fact that only few aquifers are simulated explicitly. The annual evolution of the snow depth is well reproduced, with a square correlation coefficient around 0.9 over the large altitude range in the domain. The streamflow observations were used to estimate the overall error of the simulated latent heat flux, which was estimated to be less than 4%.

International audienceEnsemble streamflow prediction systems are emerging in the international scientific community in order to better assess hydrologic threats. Two ensemble streamflow prediction systems (ESPSs) were set up at Météo-France using ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System for the first one, and from the Prévision d'Ensemble Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (PEARP) ensemble prediction system of Météo-France for the second. This paper presents the evaluation of their capacities to better anticipate severe hydrological events and more generally to estimate the quality of both ESPSs on their globality. The two ensemble predictions were used as input for the same hydrometeorological model. The skills of both ensemble streamflow prediction systems were evaluated over all of France for the precipitation input and streamflow prediction during a 569-day period and for a 2-day short-range scale. The ensemble streamflow prediction system based on the PEARP data was the best for floods and small basins, and the ensemble streamflow prediction system based on the ECMWF data seemed the best adapted for low flows and large basins

Abstract. This paper describes the impact of the various changes made to the Safran–Isba–Modcou (SIM) hydrometeorological system and demonstrates that the new version of the model performs better than the previous one by making comparisons with observations of daily river flows and snow depths. SIM was developed and put into operational service at Météo-France in the early 2000s. The SIM application is dedicated to the monitoring of water resources and can therefore help in drought monitoring or flood risk forecasting on French territory. This complex system combines three models: SAFRAN, which analyses meteorological variables close to the surface, the ISBA land surface model, which aims to calculate surface fluxes at the interface with the atmosphere and ground variables, and finally MODCOU, a hydrogeological model which calculates river flows and changes in groundwater levels. The SIM model has been improved first by reducing the infrared radiation bias of SAFRAN and then by using the more advanced ISBA multi-layer surface diffusion scheme to have a more physical representation of surface and ground processes. In addition, more accurate and recent databases of vegetation, soil texture, and orography were used. Finally, in mountainous areas, a sub-grid orography representation using elevation bands was adopted, as was the possibility of adding a reservoir to represent the effect of aquifers in mountainous areas. The numerical simulations carried out with the SIM model covered the period from 1958 to 2018, thereby providing an extensive historical analysis of the water resources over France.

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