word count: 44 Article word count: 1113 . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under ais the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) AbstractWe calculated the impact of early social distancing on the COVID-19 transmission in the São Paulo metropolitan area and forecasted the ICU beds needed to cope the epidemic demand by using an age-stratified SEIR model. Within 60 days, these measures would avoid 89,133 deaths.

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Social distancing measures have emerged as the predominant intervention for containing the spread of COVID-19, but evaluating adherence and effectiveness remains a challenge. We assessed the relationship between aggregated mobility data collected from mobile phone users and the time-dependent reproduction number R(t), using severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) cases reported by Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. We found that the proportion of individuals staying home all day (isolation index) had a strong inverse correlation with R(t) (rho<-0.7) and was predictive of COVID-19 transmissibility (p<0.0001). Furthermore, indexs of 46.7% had the highest accuracy (93.9%) to predict R(t) below one. This metric can be monitored in real time to assess adherence to social distancing measures and predict their effectiveness for controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

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