Discovering novel risk and prognostic factors for COVID-19 may help not only in reducing severity and mortality but also in creating targeted therapies considering patients’ individual features. Liver fibrosis is considered a complication in Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD), it is a feature of steatohepatitis (NASH), and it has already been related to an increased risk for a wide range of diseases. Here, we aimed to define if any parameter assessing metabolic status has predictive power in identifying inpatients at risk for poorer prognosis and an increased mortality from COVID-19. This retrospective study was conducted at the Sub-Intensive Medicine Care Unit of the Presidio Maxi-Emergenze Fiera del Levante, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Policlinico di Bari, Italy. We evaluated 271 inpatients with moderate-to-severe SARS-CoV-2-related respiratory failure by comparing biochemical features and non-invasive liver fibrosis scores among discharged, transferred to Intensive Care Units (ICU) and non-survivor patients. Moreover, by performing ROC curves, we defined cut-off values to predict mortality and disease severity for each score. We found that non-invasive scores of liver fibrosis, obtained at day of admission, such as AAR (p < 0.001), FIB-4 and mFIB-4, FORNS, and AARPRI (p < 0.05) strongly predict not only in-hospital mortality but also the length of hospitalization and eventual admission to ICU. FIB-4 was the best score to identify non-survivor patients (sensitivity of 80% and specificity of 63%) and predict the need for ICU or mortality (71% of sensitivity and 65% of specificity), with a cut-off value of 1.94. Therefore, we present the predictive power and the cut-off values of several liver fibrosis scores here for disease severity and mortality in SARS-CoV-2 in-patients and we proposed the use of the present scores to identify ab initio the clinical therapeutic and diagnostic protocols for high-risk patients.

Background: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has challenged health systems under multiple aspects. The deep understanding of risk and prognostic factors for this disease may help not only in reducing severity and mortality but also in targeting therapies considering patients’ individual features. Liver Fibrosis is considered a complication in Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD), being a feature of steatohepatitis (NASH), and it had already been related to an increased risk for a wide range of diseases. Methods: Here, we analysed a sample of 271 patients with moderate-to-severe SARS-CoV-2-related respiratory failure, hospitalized in a sub-intensive care Unit, with the aim of unveiling if any condition may predict their prognosis and mortality. Results: We found that non-invasive scores of liver fibrosis such as AAR, FIB-4 and mFIB-4, Forns, and AARPRI strongly predict not only in-hospital mortality but also the length of hospitalization and the eventual admission to intensive care units. Conclusions: Thus, pre-existing liver metabolic disease is a net predictor of poor prognosis in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients admitted to Sub-Intensive Care Unit.