This paper considers the use of simulated cash flows to determine the optimal holding period in real estate portfolio to maximize its present value. The traditional DCF approach with an estimation of the resale value through a growth rate of the future cash flow does not let appear this optimum. However, if the terminal value is calculated from the trend of a diffusion process of the price, an optimum may appear under certain conditions. Finally we consider the sensitivity of the optimal holding period to the different parameters involved in the cash flow estimations. This methodology may be applied in commercial valuation and enables to get an optimal holding period for a given portfolio.

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PurposeThe aim of this paper is to use rent and price dynamics in the future cash flows in order to improve real estate portfolio valuation.Design/methodology/approachMonte Carlo simulation methods are employed for the measurement of complex cash generating assets such as real estate assets return distribution. Important simulation inputs, such as the physical real estate price volatility estimator, are provided by results on real estate indices for Paris, derived in an article by Baroni et al..FindingsBased on a residential real estate portfolio example, simulated cash flows: provide more robust valuations than traditional DCF valuations; permit the user to estimate the portfolio's price distribution for any time horizon; and permit easy values‐at‐risk (VaR) computations.Originality/valueThe terminal value estimation is a core issue in real estate valuation. To estimate it, the proposed method is not based on an anticipated growth rate of cash flows but on the estimation of the trend and the volatility of real estate prices.