As one of the biggest agroproducts producers, China plays an important role in the global supply. Yet, climate change inevitably threatens their production and leads to tremendous losses. Furthermore, climatic and nonclimatic factors are likely to influence their producing behaviors and yields. Accordingly, this work aims to explore both the qualitative and quantitative nexus between climate change, nonclimatic drivers, and agroproduct yield in China. We choose lychee (Litchi chinensis Sonn.), with world's largest production in China and one of the most demanding agroproduct for climatic conditions, as the subject. A two-way fixed-effect Poisson model with robust standard error is developed based on county-level panel data in 39 main producing counties in China along with climatic and cultural festival factors from 2014 to 2019. The main conclusions are as follows: (a) the lychee culture festival, a nonclimatic driver, has negative effect on lychee yield, and this is a novel effect pathway theoretically and we verify it empirically; (b) climate changes in various phenological phases are significantly correlated to lychee yield; precipitation during the exposure phase or flowering phase has negative effect, and minimum temperature during the heading phase has positive effect, which is the first paper in this field; and (c) a new method is developed to analyze nonnegative yield and production, which could also be applied in other industries.

The increasingly revealed effects of climate change threaten tropical fruit production. Considerable production loss and unstable yield has been observed in China and other regions with similar climate condition. Accordingly, this paper aims to explore the impacts of environmental conditions, phenological periods, and production endowments on a tropical fruit yield, namely lychee, by using the extended Cobb–Douglas model. Lychee (Litchi chinensis Sonn.) is chosen as the focus of this study given it is one of the most climate‐sensitive tropical fruits which have important contributions to the health, economy, and culture in South China. The growth‐span was divided into four phenological periods, namely: exposure period, heading period, flowering period and maturing period. A two‐way fixed effect model is employed for county‐level mixed‐frequency panel data. This data comprises lychee yield, environmental conditions (mean temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation), production endowments (labor input, capital input, and technical input), and phenological periods in 39 main producing counties in China from 2011 to 2019. The key conclusions of interest are (1) higher minimum temperature results in larger lychee yield, (2) higher minimum temperature in the earlier phenological period has larger positive impact on lychee yield, and (3) higher growth in technical input causes lower lychee yield, and an explanation is provided. Heterogeneity analysis further implies various effects of the minimum temperature influencing lychee yield. The minimum temperature has a significant positive effect on lychee yield in non‐coastal and non‐western counties, especially in earlier phenological periods.