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Abstract

A negative effect of increasing temperature on wheat production in the coming decades has been projected for Sudan, which is a major wheat producer in Sub-Saharan Africa. Wheat is susceptible to high temperature, so trend analysis of historical yields together with observed temperature is critical for understanding the effect of climate change. The objective of this study was to determine the association between yield of irrigated wheat in hot drylands of Sudan and temperature during the growing season (November–February). Regional-scale yield data in three major wheat-producing areas (Northern State, Gezira State, and Kassala State) in 48 crop seasons (1970/71–2017/18) were used to determine the correlation of yield with maximum (TMAX) and minimum temperatures (TMIN) at representative meteorological stations (Dongola, Wad Medani, and New Halfa, respectively). Frequencies of days with maximum temperature above 35 °C (THD) and minimum temperature above 20 °C (THN) were also used for correlation analysis. In all three areas, regression analysis detected upward trends in the growing-season temperature. The increase in temperature was particularly evident at Dongola, although no such trend has been reported previously. The yields were negatively correlated with the growing-season temperature, particularly THN in Northern State, TMAX in Gezira State, and TMIN in Kassala State. These results confirm that the recent increase in the growing-season temperature might have reduced the yield to some extent in the breadbasket of Sudan.

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