This study investigates the effect of the inflation rate in Sudan on stock returns on the Khartoum Stock Exchange. The linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied to monthly data over the period from September 2003 to December 2019, with the exchange and money supply growth rates, and Murabaha profit margin as control variables. As no previous studies have studied the effect of inflation on stock returns by means of the ARDL approach, this study intends to fill this gap in the current body of literature. The results show that the inflation rate exerts a significantly negative effect on stock returns in both the short and long term, which is crucial to the understanding of all, but especially developing, economies, such as Sudan. First, policymakers must formulate strategies to control inflation and stabilize the stock market; second, any decision-making on short-and long-term investments should take account of these findings. Contribution/Originality:This study offers two contributions to the existing literature with regard to the effect of inflation rates on stock returns. First, only two similar studies undertaken in Sudan are known to exist. Second, neither of these studies adopted the linear ARDL model, which is regarded as the most reliable analysis technique.
This study investigates asymmetry in the effect of the exchange rate on the Sudanese stock market prices. We applied the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model by Shin et al. (2014) to monthly data for the period from September 2003 to September 2019, using inflation, money supply, and Murabaha profit margin as control variables. No study found that test the nonlinearity effect of the exchange rate on stock prices in Sudan. This study proposed to fill this gap by examining the impact of the exchange rate of Sudanese Pound nonlinearity on the stock prices in the Khartoum Stock Exchange. The results show that the exchange rate has asymmetric effects on stock prices in both the short run and long run. The policy implication of this paper is that modeling the exchange rate and stock prices symmetrically may affect negatively the effectiveness of economic planning. Thus, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag emerges as a more suitable model than the ARDL model for investigating such a relationship.
The study examines the significant determinants of the insurance companies' capital structure listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) from 2010 to 2018. In this study, one dependent variable capital structure is represented by leverage and six independent variables, firm characteristics variables (profitability, growth rate, risk, size, age) and macroeconomic variable (GDP). A random effect on a panel data regression model is employed as a tool of analysis. This study attempts to fill the lack of research in Saudi insurance companies to arrive at constructive suggestions that could contribute to financial structure decisions. The results show that profitability, age and risk have a statistically significant negative effect on the capital structure.Growth rate and firm size significantly positively influence the capital structure, while gross domestic product is insignificant.
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