Simulated historical extreme precipitation is evaluated for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models using precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The indices of 33 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are evaluated against corresponding indices with observations from the Global Climate Center Precipitation Dataset (GPCC V2020) over five sub-regions across Arid Central Asia (ACA), using the Taylor diagram, interannual variability skill score (IVS) and comprehensive rating index (MR). Moreover, we compare four multi-model ensemble approaches: arithmetic average multi-model ensemble (AMME), median multi-model ensemble (MME), pattern performance-based multi-model ensemble (MM-PERF) and independence weighted mean (IWM). The results show that CMIP6 models have a certain ability to simulate the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in ACA and the best ability to simulate simple daily intensity (SDII), but it is difficult to capture the spatial bias of consecutive wet days (CWD). Almost all models represent different degrees of wet bias in the southern Xinjiang (SX). Most GCMs are generally able to capture extreme precipitation trends, but to reproduce the performance of interannual variability for heavy precipitation days (R10mm), SDII and CWD need to be improved. The four multi-model ensemble methods can reduce the internal system bias and variability within individual models and outperform individual models in capturing the spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation. However, significant uncertainties remain in the simulation of extreme precipitation indices in SX and Tianshan Mountain (TM). Comparatively, IWM simulations of extreme precipitation in the ACA and its sub-regions are more reliable. The results of this study can provide a reference for the application of GCMs in ACA and sub-regions and can also reduce the uncertainty and increase the reliability of future climate change projections through the optimal multi-model ensemble method.

The arid region of northwest China (ARNC) is one of the most sensitive areas to global warming. However, the performance of new Global Climate Models (GCMs) from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating climate in this region, especially in the subregions, is not clear yet. Based on the temperature dataset from historical runs of CMIP6, this paper analyzed and evaluated the simulation ability of 29 GCMs in reproducing the annual mean temperature (tas), annual mean maximum temperature (tasmax) and annual mean minimum temperature (tasmin) in the ARNC and subregions from 1961 to 2014. The results show that (1) the correlation coefficients (CCs) between simulation and observation time series for the mean of two model ensembles (MME for equal-weight multi-model ensemble and PME for preferred-model ensemble) are generally better than those of 29 individual GCMs, with CCs ranging from 0.38 to 0.87 (p < 0.01). (2) All the models can simulate the significant warming trend of the three temperature elements in the study area well. However, the warming magnitude simulated by most of the models (41%) is smaller than the observations except for tasmax, which is also shown in the MME. (3) The spatial pattern of the three temperature elements can be better reflected by most models. Model simulation ability for the ARNC is better compared to that of the four subregions, with a spatial CC greater than 0.7 (p < 0.01). Among the subregions, the simulation performance of the north of Xinjiang for spatial pattern is superior to that of the other regions. (4) The preferred models for each subregion are various and should be treated differently when used. Overall, the PME outperforms both the MME and the individual models; it can not only simulate the linear trend accurately but also reduce the deviation effectively.

In the context of global warming, the melting of glaciers in the Tien Shan Mountains as the important “solid reservoir” in the arid area of Central Asia is accelerating in recent decades, leading to profound changes in regional water resources. Based on the simulated glaciological data from the Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM) and the measured glaciological data from the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS), this paper analyzed the applicability of simulated data, the changes in glacier mass balance, and the responses of the glacier to climate change and its impacts on glacier runoff in the Tien Shan Mountains. The results show that (1) the PyGEM simulation dataset is in good agreement with the measurements, which can effectively reproduce the change in the glacier mass balance in the Tien Shan Mountains glaciers and is suitable for studying the regional scale glacier change. (2) From 1980 to 2016, the decadal average mass balance change rate of glaciers in the Tien Shan Mountains was −0.012 m w.e. yr−1. The regional mass balance showed an overall negative increasing trend (the area with increasingly negative accounted for 80.13% of the entire area), with a positive increase that only occurred in the West Tien Shan Mountains and western North Tien Shan Mountains (19.87%). (3) The correlation between the temperature and mass balance is much higher than that between the precipitation and mass balance. Temperature dominates the change and development of regional glaciers. The increase in negative glacier mass balance that was observed in the study area is mainly affected by the rising temperature, the decreasing solid precipitation in the accumulation period, and the rapid melting in the ablation period. (4) The glacier runoff in the six representative rivers showed an increasing trend. The contribution rate of glacier runoff to river runoff changed significantly after 2000 but differed among rivers. Overall, the larger the glacier area in the source region is, the greater the contribution rate of glacier runoff is, and the more the contribution rate continuously increases or fluctuates; otherwise, the contribution rate keeps declining, which means the runoff peak may have passed and future runoff may decrease.