a b s t r a c tThe recent 2015/16 summer rainfall season in the terrestrial Southern African Development Community (SADC) region appears to be the most severe since the droughts of the early 1980s and 1990s; with well-publicized significant impacts on agriculture and food security. Impacts have been particularly concerning since the 2015/6 season followed a poor rainy season in 2014/15, in certain areas compounding already compromised production (total maize production was, for example, down 40% relative to the previous 5 year average). This paper reviews climate forecasts and observations of the two seasons, and presents examples of the resulting impacts on agriculture within the region. We conclude by considering what may be learnt from this experience, focussing on operational recommendations for early warning within SADC, as well as longstanding needs for awareness raising and capacity building.

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Within Southern African biomes, droughts are recurrent with devastating impacts on ecological, economic, and human wellbeing. In this context, understanding the drought impact on vegetation is of extreme importance. However, information on drought impact on natural vegetation at the biome level is scanty and remains poorly understood. Most studies of drought impact on vegetation have largely focussed on crops. The few existing studies on natural vegetation are based on experiments and field measurements at individual tree level which are not representative of biomes. In this study, we mapped the spatial extent and severity of drought using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and then quantified the drought impact on Southern African biomes using the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) for the period 1998 to 2017. To compare drought impact across the biomes, we computed the percentage area of the biome with seasonal VCI <30. The drought trend for each biome was computed for each pixel using a linear regression model in R software using the seasonal VCI images from 1998 to 2017. Our result showed that extreme drought impact on vegetation was mainly confined to the southwestern biomes (i.e. the Nama karoo and desert biomes) with most drought occurring during the first half of the season. We also observed an increasing trend of VCI (1998 to 2017) across all biomes and this increasing VCI trend might be explained by woody encroachment which is prevalent in the Savannah and Grassland biomes. The results of this study provide baseline information on drought hotspots.

An understanding of drought and land cover interaction plays a crucial role in vegetation vulnerability studies and land use planning. However, there is paucity of information on drought, land cover and land use interaction in southern Africa. We analysed the drought impact on land cover using Globcover land cover data and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) for the 2015 to 2016 season. The 2015 to 2016 season was chosen because it was the worst drought in southern Africa since the 1980s. We developed a novel land cover 'social pixels' or 'village pixels' which represents rural communities. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to evaluate whether there is a significant difference in drought impact among the land cover classes. The response of each land cover to drought impact was calculated by correlating Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Our results reveal that the evergreen forests and the flooded vegetation were the most severely affected by the 2015-2016 drought. However, the lowest VCI values were recorded within the village pixels land cover, indicating the vulnerability of rural communities to drought impacts. The vegetation response to drought impact ranged from 2 months (crops) to 8 months (flooded vegetation). With regards to drought recurrence (1998 to 2018), the crop and grassland land cover recorded the highest drought frequency whilst the forest had the least drought frequency.