Abstract:Bangladesh is one of the most sensitive hotspot for climate change and climate-related extreme events which significantly affect agricultural production. As a result farmers' try to minimize the adverse affects by various adaptation strategies. The aim of the study is thus, perception of and adaption capacities to climate change adaption strategies and their effects on rice production in a moderate level of drought severity and groundwater depletion but greater cropping diversity area (Pabna District). To find out the actual trend of climatic variables (e.g., temperature and rainfall) fourty two years of climate data on temperature and rainfall from the Bangladesh Metrological Department (BMD) for Ishwardi weather station were collected and analyzed using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. The adaptive capacities of rice farmers were estimated quantitatively and categorized into high, moderate and low adaptive capacities. Double logarithmic regression model of Cobb-Douglas production function was used to quantity the effects of adaptive capacities of farmers on rice production. The data was obtained by conducting direct collaboration with 200 rice growers of Pabna District in the periods of July, 2015. The results of Mann-Kendall test revealed that an increase in annual temperature of +0.014°C and decrease in annual rainfall -1.152 from 1972 to 2013 has been recorded for the Ishwardi station of Pabna District, Bangladesh which is similar with the farmers' perceptions. Result of adaptive capacities revealed that on the average the farmers' interviewed are moderately adaptive to climate change. The results of Cobb-Douglas production function identified that the degree of adaptive capacities, labour, use of fertilizer, farm size, education and extension contact have significant effects on rice production. It also indicates that the more a farmer has the ability to adjust to climate change strategies the more the rice output he or she obtain. Therefore, rice farmers should be empowered through better extension services for obtaining more rice output. Strengthening agricultural research and support services including information accessibility, education and training for improved crop culture practices, and expanded and efficient surface-water irrigation infrastructure are critically important for increasing the adaptive capacities of the farmers.

Climate change alters the impact of the environment on economies, and sustainable adaptation which may improve food security is embedded in the actualization of the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2, 13, and 14. Hence, this study contributes to the debate by measuring how farmers in the Northwestern region of Bangladesh adapt to climate change. A cross-sectional multistage random sampling is used to collect 500 data points by the face-to-face interview method. For robustness, the study demonstrates climate change adaptations, adaptation indices, and the sustainability indicators in social, economic, and environmental concepts using the composite indicator method. Also, Rasch analysis and marginal contribution were used to explain the adaptation indices. Finally, a trivariate Tobit regression is used to examine sustainability analyses of climate change adaptation strategies and explain how the climate change adaptations affect different dimensions of sustainability. The results showed that dominant male households, extended family, skilled farmers and food security influenced adaptation index as well as adaptation strategies like organic manure, changing planting dates, diseases tolerant varieties and irrigation. Though, most dominant strategies like irrigation and applying fertilizer are not sustainable. The study also found that farm size, credit access, and extension contact significantly affects sustainability. Moreover, off-farm activities, crop diversification, and using high-yield varieties are more sustainable adaptation strategies. Policy should be implemented on the basis of region and sustainable manner.

The erratic weather puts farming households of Bangladesh at high production risk with significant consequences on food production, income, and livelihood. This study attempts to find the effect of various climate change indicators on agriculture in Bangladesh over the period 1980–2014. The study used the ARDL bounds testing approach to assess the long-run associations and the Granger causality test to determine the causal relationships between the regressors and dependent variables. The outcomes revealed that the first lag of agricultural value-added, second lag of carbon emissions, and average rainfall have a positive impact while the first lag of carbon has negative and significant impacts on agricultural production in the long run; in the short run-past realizations of carbon emission have a negative and significant impact on agricultural value-added. Additionally, the results show a unidirectional causality from carbon emission to agricultural output, agricultural output to average rainfall, and agricultural output to energy consumption. The study fills the gap in the climate change literature by applying the ARDL method to establish the nexus between climate change and agricultural output in Bangladesh.

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