Seismic and geodetic moment-rate comparisons can reveal regions with unexpected potential seismic hazards. We performed such a comparison for the Southeastern Iberia—Maghreb region. Located at the western Mediterranean border along the Eurasia–Nubia plate convergence, the region has been subject to a number of large earthquakes (M ≥ 6.5) in the last millennium. To this end, on the basis of available geological, tectonic, and seismological data, we divided the study area into twenty-five seismogenic source zones. Many of these seismogenic source zones, comprising the Western Betics, the Western Rif mountains, and the High, Middle, and Saharan Atlas, are characterized by seismic/geodetic ratio values lower than 23%, evidencing their prevailing aseismic behavior. Intermediate seismic/geodetic ratio values (between 35% and 60%) have been observed for some zones belonging to the Eastern Betics, the central Rif, and the Middle Atlas, indicating how crustal seismicity accounts only for a moderate fraction of the total deformation-rate budget. High seismic/geodetic ratio values (> 95%) have been observed along the Tell Atlas, highlighting a fully seismic deformation.

The Adria microplate is the foreland of the oppositely verging Apennines and Alps or Dinarides fold-thrust belts associated to the related subduction zones. Along its western margin, the Adria plate hosts the active Northern Apennines accretionary prism, which is buried under the Adriatic Sea and the Po Plain. The interpretation of seismic reflection profiles and borehole data allowed us to define the geometry of the transition from the Apennines fold-thrust belt to its undeformed foreland. Moreover, continuous GPS (CGPS) data from offshore hydrocarbon platforms anchored to the seabed of the northern Adriatic plate allow to measure present-day kinematics. Although the CGPS signals are affected by non-tectonic components associated with hydrocarbon extraction, the integration of geodetic analysis, subsurface geological reconstructions, and analytical modeling allowed us to constrain the ongoing tectonic activity. Shortening is currently accommodated by aseismic slip along the basal detachment, likely accumulating elastic energy along the frontal ramp that may eventually seismically slip. Our multidisciplinary study suggests that the study area may not be sheltered from relevant seismic sequences similar to the Mw 6 Emilia 2012 events and that the occurrence of potential seismogenic sources in the area should be carefully evaluated. Similar studies may be useful to constrain the present-day activity in other marine areas and to identify potential and hitherto unrecognized seismogenic sources along the entire Apennines belt and other accretionary prisms worldwide.

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We provide a dataset of 3D coordinate time series of 37 continuous GNSS stations installed for stability monitoring purposes on onshore and offshore industrial settlements along a NW-SE-oriented and ~100-km-wide belt encompassing the eastern Italian coast and the Adriatic Sea. The dataset results from the analysis performed by using different geodetic software (Bernese, GAMIT/GLOBK and GIPSY) and consists of six raw position time series solutions, referred to IGb08 and IGS14 reference frames. Time series analyses and comparisons evidence that the different solutions are consistent between them, despite the use of different software, models, strategy processing and frame realizations. We observe that the offshore stations are subject to significant seasonal oscillations probably due to seasonal environmental loads, seasonal temperature-induced platform deformation and hydrostatic pressure variations. Many stations are characterized by non-linear time series, suggesting a complex interplay between regional (long-term tectonic stress) and local sources of deformation (e.g. reservoirs depletion, sediment compaction). Computed raw time series, logs files, phasor diagrams and time series comparison plots are distributed via PANGAEA (https://www.pangaea.de).

Based on multidisciplinary data, including seismological and geodetic observations, as well as seismic reflection profiles and gravity maps, we analysed the pattern of crustal deformation and active tectonics in the Sicily Channel, a key observation point to unravel the complex interaction between two major plates, Nubia and Eurasia, in the Mediterranean Sea. Our data highlight the presence of an active ~ 220-km-long complex lithospheric fault system (here named the Lampedusa-Sciacca Shear Zone), approximately oriented N–S, crossing the study area with left-lateral strike-slip deformations, active volcanism and high heat flow. We suggest that this shear zone represents the most active tectonic domain in the area, while the NW–SE elongated rifting pattern, considered the first order tectonic feature, appears currently inactive and sealed by undeformed recent (Lower Pleistocene?) deposits. Estimates of seismological and geodetic moment-rates, 6.58 × 1015 Nm/year and 7.24 × 1017 Nm/year, respectively, suggests that seismicity accounts only for ~ 0.9% of crustal deformation, while the anomalous thermal state and the low thickness of the crust would significantly inhibit frictional sliding in favour of creeping and aseismic deformation. We therefore conclude that a significant amount of the estimated crustal deformation-rate occurs aseismically, opening new scenarios for seismic risk assessments in the region.