The effects of environmental conditions on the variability in germination dynamics of Plasmopara viticola oospores were studied from 1999 to 2003. The germination course was determined indirectly as the relative infection incidence (RII) occurring on grape leaf discs kept in contact with oospores sampled from a vineyard between March and July. The time elapsed between 1 January and the infection occurrence was expressed as physiological time, using four methods: (i) sums of daily temperatures > 8 ° C; (ii) hourly temperatures > 10 ° C; (iii) sums of hourly rates from a temperature-dependent function; or (iv) sums of these rates in hours with a rain or vapour pressure deficit ≤ 4·5 hPa (hydro-thermal time, HT). An equation of Gompertz in the form RII = exp[ − a · exp( − b · HT)] produced an accurate fit for both separate years ( R 2 = 0·97 to 0·99) and pooled data ( R 2 = 0·89), as well as a good accuracy in cross-estimating new data ( r between observed and cross-estimated data were between 0·93 and 0·99, P < 0·0001). It also accounted for a great part of the variability in oospore germination between years and both between and within sampling periods. Therefore, the equation of Gompertz (with a = 15·9 ± 2·63 and b = 0·653 ± 0·034) calculated over hydro-thermal time, a physiological time accounting for the effects of both temperature and moisture, produced a consistent modelling of the general relationships between the germination dynamics of a population of P. viticola oospores and weather conditions. It represents the relative density of the seasonal oospores that should have produced sporangia when they have experienced favourable conditions for germination.

As climate is a key agro-ecosystem driving force, climate change could have a severe impact on agriculture. Many assessments have been carried out to date on the possible effects of climate change (temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentration changes) on plant physiology. At present however, likely effects on plant pathogens have not been investigated deeply. The aim of this work was to simulate future scenarios of downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) epidemics on grape under climate change, by combining a disease model to output from two general circulation models (GCMs). Model runs corresponding to the SRES-A2 emissions scenario, characterized by high projections of both population and greenhouse gas emissions from present to 2100, were chosen in order to investigate impacts of worst-case scenarios, among those currently available from IPCC. Three future decades were simulated (2030, 2050, 2080), using as baseline historical series of meteorological data collected from 1955 to 2001 in Acqui Terme, an important grape-growing area in the north-west of Italy. Both GCMs predicted increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation in this region. The simulations obtained by combining the disease model to the two GCM outputs predicted an increase of the disease pressure in each decade: more severe epidemics were a direct consequence of more favourable temperature conditions during the months of May and June. These negative effects of increasing temperatures more than counterbalanced the effects of precipitation reductions, which alone would have diminished disease pressure. Results suggested that, as adaptation response to future climate change, more attention would have to be paid in the management of early downy mildew infections; two more fungicide sprays were necessary under the most negative climate scenario, compared with present management regimes. At the same time, increased knowledge on the effects of climate change on host-pathogen interactions will be necessary to improve current predictions.

In this work, we analyse the role of climatic constraints in shaping the distribution of alien plant species along the elevation gradient in the European Alps. Alien species occurrence was recorded in 278 plots located beside rivers, from 100 to 2,100 m a.s.l. Climate variables were calculated from the data recorded by 145 meteorological stations and interpolated by a multiple regression approach. Both richness and occurrence of aliens were modelled. In particular, relationships between the occurrence of alien plants and (1) elevation or (2) the climatic variables, were tested by applying generalised linear models and generalised linear mixed models; the model parameters obtained were used to estimate upper elevation limits of alien occurrence and their related climate values. Sixty-eight alien species were encountered, the majority (71%) invasive in Italy and worldwide. A steep decrease in alien species richness with elevation was found, with the probability of alien species occurrence decreasing by half for each 100 m increase in elevation. Minimal adequate models based on (1) non-transformed climatic variables and (2) derived PCA values, confirmed that occurrence of alien plant species along the elevation gradient was positively related to the minimum temperature, the mean temperature and the heat sum for the spring season, rather than to the incidence of absolute minimum temperature and frost days, as usually assumed. Although further experimental analyses are needed, these results support the hypothesis that, referring to climate factors, elevation limits along rivers are mainly established by low spring temperatures which operate at the level of population viability rather than plant survival.

The main aims of this work were to classify 30 colored and white wine grape varieties according to the berry skin hardness, to assess the influence of annual variations in climate on the berry skin hardness, and to establish significant relationships among berry skin mechanical properties and some climatic-bioclimatic indices calculated for different grape-ripening periods, close to the harvest date. The results obtained show that the most influential bioclimatic indices on the skin mechanical attributes were temperature parameters. In the same season, the influence of the production area was also evaluated, precipitation parameters being the best correlated with the berry skin hardness. This first work has permitted us to know the relationship among skin texture characteristics and seasonal climatic indices.