In this article we examine the constraints on Germany's influence over reforms of the Economic and Monetary Union's (EMU) macroeconomic governance regime. Drawing on the insights of historical institutionalism, we show that the German government's control over the process is constrained by the increased sunk costs of European monetary integration and the unintended negative spillovers from its management of the eurozone crisis. While the German government attempted to promote the domestic societal interests underpinning its creditor preferences by deflecting the burden of macroeconomic and institutional adjustment onto the debtor countries, negative feedback loops linked to the pursuit of these preferences induced it to accept a less orthodox and increasingly accommodative central bank to make the EMU sustainable.

On 8 March, US President Donald Trump approved new import tariffs on "iron and steel" and "aluminium" of 25% and 10%, respectively. The aim of this paper is to estimate the impact that this decision might have on the Spanish regions. Our empirical strategy combines three powerful models to address the trade effect both over the global economy, and more specifically, in each Spanish region.First, by means of the SMART simulation model, we estimate the trade effect for 131 countries; then, we compute the intersectoral effects of such shock using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD); finally, we estimate the interregional and intersectoral effects within Spain, using an interregional input-output table. This last step combines both, the immediate product shock over the metal sector in Spain, and the global effect computed by means of the WIOD. The results obtained shows how the US tariffs might induce a total job loss of 185,000 employees worldwide, while in Spain, it may cost 3,500 jobs. KEYWORDS inter-regional input-output models, inter-regional trade, Spain, trade policy, US JEL CLASSIFICATION

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