Background With the spread of COVID-19, the time-series prediction of COVID-19 has become a research hotspot. Unlike previous epidemics, COVID-19 has a new pattern of long-time series, large fluctuations, and multiple peaks. Traditional dynamical models are limited to curves with short-time series, single peak, smoothness, and symmetry. Secondly, most of these models have unknown parameters, which bring greater ambiguity and uncertainty. There are still major shortcomings in the integration of multiple factors, such as human interventions, environmental factors, and transmission mechanisms. Methods A dynamical model with only infected humans and removed humans was established. Then the process of COVID-19 spread was segmented using a local smoother. The change of infection rate at different stages was quantified using the continuous and periodic Logistic growth function to quantitatively describe the comprehensive effects of natural and human factors. Then, a non-linear variable and NO2 concentrations were introduced to qualify the number of people who have been prevented from infection through human interventions. Results The experiments and analysis showed the R2 of fitting for the US, UK, India, Brazil, Russia, and Germany was 0.841, 0.977, 0.974, 0.659, 0.992, and 0.753, respectively. The prediction accuracy of the US, UK, India, Brazil, Russia, and Germany in October was 0.331, 0.127, 0.112, 0.376, 0.043, and 0.445, respectively. Conclusion The model can not only better describe the effects of human interventions but also better simulate the temporal evolution of COVID-19 with local fluctuations and multiple peaks, which can provide valuable assistant decision-making information.
As the threat of COVID-19 increases, many countries have carried out various non-pharmaceutical interventions. Although many studies have evaluated the impact of these interventions, there is a lack of mapping between model parameters and actual geographic areas. In this study, a non-pharmaceutical intervention model of COVID-19 based on a discrete grid is proposed from the perspective of geography. This model can provide more direct and effective information for the formulation of prevention and control policies. First, a multi-level grid was introduced to divide the geographical space, and the properties of the grid boundary were used to describe the quarantine status and intensity in these different spaces; this was also combined with the model of hospital isolation and self-protection. Then, a process for the spatiotemporal evolution of the early COVID-19 spread is proposed that integrated the characteristics of residents’ daily activities. Finally, the effect of the interventions was quantitatively analyzed by the dynamic transmission model of COVID-19. The results showed that quarantining is the most effective intervention, especially for infectious diseases with a high infectivity. The introduction of a quarantine could effectively reduce the number of infected humans, advance the peak of the maximum infected number of people, and shorten the duration of the pandemic. However, quarantines only function properly when employed at sufficient intensity; hospital isolation and self-protection measures can effectively slow the spread of COVID-19, thus providing more time for the relevant departments to prepare, but an outbreak will occur again when the hospital reaches full capacity. Moreover, medical resources should be concentrated in places where there is the most urgent need under a strict quarantine measure.
<abstract><p>The point-feature label placement (PFLP) refers to the process of positioning labels near point features on a map while adhering to specific rules and guidelines, finally obtaining clear, aesthetically pleasing, and conflict-free maps. While various approaches have been suggested for automated point feature placement on maps, few studies have fully considered the spatial distribution characteristics and label correlations of point datasets, resulting in poor label quality in the process of solving the label placement of dense and complex point datasets. In this paper, we propose a point-feature label placement algorithm based on spatial data mining that analyzes the local spatial distribution characteristics and label correlations of point features. The algorithm quantifies the interference among point features by designing a label frequent pattern framework (LFPF) and constructs an ascending label ordering method based on the pattern to reduce interference. Besides, three classical metaheuristic algorithms (simulated annealing algorithm, genetic algorithm, and ant colony algorithm) are applied to the PFLP in combination with the framework to verify the validity of this framework. Additionally, a bit-based grid spatial index is proposed to reduce cache memory and consumption time in conflict detection. The performance of the experiments is tested with 4000, 10000, and 20000 points of POI data obtained randomly under various label densities. The results of these experiments showed that: (1) the proposed method outperformed both the original algorithm and recent literature, with label quality improvements ranging from 3 to 6.7 and from 0.1 to 2.6, respectively. (2) The label efficiency was improved by 58.2% compared with the traditional grid index.</p></abstract>
To understand the complex phenomena in social space and monitor the dynamic changes in people’s tracks, we need more cross-scale data. However, when we retrieve data, we often ignore the impact of multi-scale, resulting in incomplete results. To solve this problem, we proposed a management method of multi-granularity dimensions for spatiotemporal data. This method systematically described dimension granularity and the fuzzy caused by dimension granularity, and used multi-scale integer coding technology to organize and manage multi-granularity dimensions, and realized the integrity of the data query results according to the correlation between the different scale codes. We simulated the time and band data for the experiment. The experimental results showed that: (1) this method effectively solves the problem of incomplete query results of the intersection query method. (2) Compared with traditional string encoding, the query efficiency of multiscale integer encoding is twice as high. (3) The proportion of different dimension granularity has an impact on the query effect of multi-scale integer coding. When the proportion of fine-grained data is high, the advantage of multi-scale integer coding is greater.
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