El escenario de riesgo sistémico generado por la pandemia del COVID-19 obliga a revisar cómo los mecanismos de comunicación del riesgo son capaces de incidir en el comportamiento de las personas y, con ello, fomentar la adhesión a las medidas de autocuidado y de prevención de los contagios. Para evaluarlos, esta investigación analiza el caso de 4 ciudades latinoamericanas, comparando las políticas impulsadas por los gobiernos nacionales y los determinantes de la adherencia. Se establece que la confianza en quien comunica y en los medios de comunicación es un factor gravitante en la adopción de las medidas por parte de la población, así como algunos factores sociodemográficos (edad y nivel educativo). A la vez, muestra que las personas que viven en la ciudad de Buenos Aires han tenido un mayor nivel de cumplimiento que las de Santiago, Lima y Bogotá. La investigación permite concluir que el campo de la comunicación del riesgo en la región requiere una mayor comprensión y desarrollo por parte de los diversos actores involucrados en ella.
In recent years, a wide range of techniques has been developed to predict electoral results and to measure the influence of different factors in these results. In this paper, we analyze the influence of the political profile of candidates (characterized by personal and political features) and their campaign effort (characterized by electoral expenditure and by territorial deployment strategies retrieved from social networks activity) on the electoral results. This analysis is carried out by using three of the most frequent data analyitcs algorithms in the literature. For our analysis, we consider the 2017 Parliamentary elections in Chile, which are the first elections after a major reform of the electoral system, that encompassed a transition from a binomial to a proportional system, a modification of the districts’ structure, an increase in the number of seats, and the requirement of gender parity in the lists of the different coalitions. The obtained results reveal that, regardless of the political coalition, the electoral experience of candidates, in particular in the same seat they are running for (even when the corresponding district is modified), is by large the most influential factor to explain the electoral results. However, the attained results show that the influence of other features, such as campaign expenditures, depends on the political coalition. Additionally, by means of a simulation procedure, we show how different levels of territorial deployment efforts might impact on the results of candidates. This procedure could be used by parties and coalitions when planning their campaign strategies.
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