The determinants of food prices have attracted sizeable debates among scholars over the last three decades. However, many of these studies ignore the possibility that the impact of oil prices on food prices could vary across the food price distribution. The paper employs a quantile regression technique to ascertain whether food prices respond to the potential heterogeneous impact of crude oil price changes in the six selected African net oil-exporting countries. The coefficient of negative oil price shocks in the panel OLS model is insignificant and positive at the 5% significance level. In contrast, the coefficient of positive oil price shocks significantly affects food prices for the chosen African countries. The quantile regression analysis's empirical findings highlight the diverse dependence effects of various ranges on food prices. All coefficients are non-significant across all quantiles for negative oil price shocks, a conclusion consistent with panel least squares estimate results. Besides, the findings prove that positive changes in oil prices significantly affect the magnitude of food prices in selected African countries. The article concludes that the influence of crude oil price variations on food prices is diverse and positive across quantiles for a subset of Africa's net oil-exporting countries. The findings of this study could have a crucial policy and economic implications for economic agents and stakeholders in diverse fiscal environments. As a result, economic agents must make timely decisions to respond to the effects of oil price uncertainty on Africa's food market.
Purpose -This paper aims to examine the relationship between the shadow economy and income inequality in Nigeria.Method -The paper employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS), and Granger causality. This methodology is used to avoid endogeneity and heterogeneity in the model. This paper gauged income inequality using two diverse indicators of the Gini coefficient: the Gini index in proportion to household disposable income and the Gini index in proportion to household market income. In accordance with the literature, our empirical analysis draws on data from the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID), the World Bank, World Development Indicators, and the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) for Nigeria from 1991 to 2018.Result -The findings of ARDL and FMOLS suggested a positive relationship between income inequality and the shadow economy, based on both measures of income inequality. In the short term, however, the shadow economy and income inequality are negatively correlated. Furthermore, we discovered a one-way causal relationship exists in Nigeria between the shadow economy, household disposable income, institutional democracy, household market income, and corruption control (CCI). Recommendation -Shadow economy has been regarded as an avenue to create job opportunities and raise poverty-income levels. It is critical that, for the shadow economy to reduce income inequality in Nigeria, policymakers should develop much better policies aimed at addressing income inequality.Contribution -In order to understand the relationship between income inequality and shadow economy activities in Nigeria, this study employed three methodologies, namely: Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Granger Causality. The result offers reliable recommendations for pro-poor interventions that aim to limit the growth of informality via redistributing incomes.
Introduction: It is likely that enterprises and entrepreneurs will be encouraged to engage in the formal sector as economies integrate more fully into the global economy. Thus, we begin our investigation by looking at the relationship between Nigeria's shadow economy and disaggregated trade openness. Based on Nigeria's inadequate institutional quality, our second purpose is to conduct further research on the role institutional quality plays in moderating the relationship between its shadow economy and disaggregated trade openness between 1991 and 2018. Methods: The fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and Granger causality methods are used in this paper to investigate the nexus and causal effect in time-series analysis. Results: The coefficients of institutional quality, import-to-GDP ratio, government expenditure, and financial development all have an adverse impact on Nigeria's shadow economy. The inflation proxy with the consumer price index, economic growth, and the export-to-GDP ratio all improve Nigeria's shadow economy. The findings of interaction between the import-export ratio and the quality of institutions positively affect the Nigerian shadow economy. The pairwise Granger causality exercise comes after the regression analysis. Conclusion and suggestion: The study concludes that the size of Nigeria's shadow economy is influenced by institutional quality, import trade, government expenditures, and financial development. Similarly, we find no causal relationship between disaggregated trade openness in Nigeria and institutional quality. As a result, policymakers and the country's government must act quickly and decisively to reduce the impact of informal activities on the country's economy.
Purpose This paper aims to model the relationship between oil price and stock returns for selected sectors in Nigeria using monthly data from January 2007 to December 2016. Design/methodology/approach The authors use both the linear (symmetric) autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) by Pesaran et al. (2001) and non-linear (asymmetric) ARDL by Shin et al. (2014), and they also account for structural breaks using the Bai and Perron (2003) test that allows for multiple structural changes in regression models. Findings The results indicate that the strength of this relationship varies across sectors, albeit asymmetric and breaks. The authors identify two structural breaks that occur in 2008 and 2010/2011, which coincidentally correspond to the global financial crisis and the Arab spring (Libyan shutdowns), respectively. Moreover, the authors observe strong support for asymmetry and structural breaks for some sectors in the reaction of sector returns to movement in oil prices. These findings are robust and insensitive when considering different oil proxies. While further extensions can be pursued, the consideration of asymmetric effects as well as structural breaks should not be jettisoned when modelling this nexus. Originality/value This study is one of the very few studies that have investigated the sectoral behaviour of stocks to oil price shocks, particularly in Nigeria. This paper contributes to the oil stock literature using the recent technique of asymmetry and also considering the role structural breaks play in the relationship between oil price and stock returns.
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