The matrix growth models of maple-beech and maple stands in the uneven-aged mixed species hardwood forests in the Algonquin region of Ontario are specified as a system of simultaneous growth equations with restrictions on the sum of transition probabilities. The specified system of growth equations is estimated using the seemingly unrelated regression technique. The estimated matrix growth models are used to predict the growth dynamics of stands. Linear and nonlinear programming models are used to seek optimal management regimes and to analyze the trade-offs between financial returns and structural diversity at the forest level as well as at the stand level. The optimal harvesting schedules obtained at the forest level without ecological (residual basal area or structural diversity) constraints are identical with those obtained at the stand level; however, for higher structural diversity at the forest level, the optimal harvesting schedules based on forest-level decision making are found to be different from those based on stand-level decision making.

The market performance of the government-controlled stumpage system of Ontario is investigated by examining the relationships between the stumpage prices and the market prices of end products (lumber, composites, and pulp) produced from standing timber, using monthly data from June 1995 to Feb. 2005. The long-run equilibrium relationship between the stumpage price and the relevant market price is tested using Johansen's multivariate co-integration approach. In addition, the Granger-causality between the stumpage price and the relevant market price is also analyzed. Test results indicate that the Ontario stumpage system is working well with respect to the stumpage prices of SPF (spruce, pine, fir) for softwood lumber and pulp, while there is a need for changes and modifications in terms of revising different parameters of the system with respect to stumpage prices of SPF for composites, and stumpage prices of red pine and white pine timber for lumber. Test results are inconclusive for the stumpage price of red pine and white pine for composites.

Dumping has been one of the most controversial issues in the never-ending softwood lumber trade dispute between the United States (US) and Canada. In this paper, we investigate whether the softwood lumber producers in Ontario dumped product into their major market in the US during the period from April 1996 to September 2006. The Enhanced Parity Bounds Model was used to explore the possibility that Ontario's softwood lumber producers had exercised price discrimination between the Toronto market and the Great Lakes market. Our analysis indicates that the industry had on average charged a higher price in the Great Lakes market than in the Toronto market during this period. Based on this evidence and the economic conditions in which a US antidumping investigation and two administrative reviews were conducted, we draw the conclusion that the Ontario's softwood lumber producers did not dump product into the US market during the study period.Résumé : Le dumping est une des questions les plus controversées dans le conflit interminable du bois d'oeuvre entre les É tats-Unis et le Canada. Dans cet article, nous avons voulu déterminer si les producteurs ontariens de bois d'oeuvre résin-eux ont fait du dumping dans leur principal marché aux É tats-Unis au cours de la période allant d'avril 1996 à septembre 2006. Un modèle d'intégration des marchés (enhanced parity bounds model) a été utilisé pour explorer la possibilité que les producteurs ontariens de bois d'oeuvre résineux aient pratiqué une discrimination des prix entre le marché de Toronto et celui des Grands Lacs. Notre analyse indique que l'industrie a chargé un prix en moyenne plus élevé dans le marché des Grands Lacs que dans celui de Toronto durant cette période. Sur la base de cette preuve et des conditions économiques dans lesquelles l'enquête anti-dumping et les révisions administratives américaines ont été faites, nous arrivons à la conclusion que les producteurs de bois d'oeuvre résineux de l'Ontario n'ont pas fait de dumping dans le marché américain durant la période qui a été étudiée.[Traduit par la Rédaction]