To understand how the unfolding diet transformation in East and Southern Africa is likely to influence the evolution of employment within its agrifood system and between that system and the rest of the economy. To briefly consider implications for education and skill acquisition. Design/methodology/approach: We link changing diets to employment structure. We then use alternative projections of diet change over 15-and 30-year intervals to develop scenarios on changes in employment structure. Findings: As long as incomes in ESA continue to rise at levels near those of the past decade, the transformation of their economies is likely to advance dramatically. Key features will be: sharp decline in the share of the workforce engaged in farming even as absolute numbers rise modestly, sharp increase in the share engaged in non-farm segments of the agrifood system, and an even sharper increase in the share engaged outside the agrifood system. Within the agrifood system, food preparation away from home is likely to grow most rapidly, followed by food manufacturing, and finally by marketing, transport, and other agrifood system services. Resource booms in Mozambique and (potentially) Tanzania are the main factor that may change this pattern. Research Implications: Clarifying policy implications requires renewed research given the rapid changes in Africa over the past 15 years. Program Implications: Improved quality of education at primary and secondary levels must be the main focus of efforts to build the skills needed to facilitate transformation.

This paper presents on a study conducted in the central region of

No abstract

Maize is an important staple crop in Southern Africa that has often been prioritised from a policy perspective, particularly in the imposition of export controls under periods of perceived uncertainty. This tendency has been particularly relevant in Zambia, which has also emerged as an important surplus producer in Southern Africa in recent years. Its favourable transport differential and non-GM maize has helped Zambia grow its share in Zimbabwean maize imports at the expense of South Africa, but exports into Zimbabwe remains competitive between the two countries and particularly during periods of export control in Zambia, South Africa typically steps in to supply the deficit. This study therefore evaluates the extent of price transmission between Zambia, South Africa and Zimbabwe under two exogenous regimes defined by periods of open trade and trade controls imposed by the Zambian government. It uses secondary data of monthly white maize prices in these three markets to quantify the long and short run price relationships under different regimes. While several authors have noted that trade is not a prerequisite for price transmission between markets, this study finds evidence that the imposition of policies that inhibit trade also influences the rate and nature of price transmission between markets. Periods of open trade were characterised by efficient transmission of prices from Zambia to Zimbabwe, which is in line with typical trade patterns, but during periods of trade controls, no relationship was found between Zambian and Zimbabwean markets, with prices being transmitted from South Africa to Zimbabwe instead.