Rationale: Contacts of patients with tuberculosis (TB) constitute an important target population for preventive measures because they are at high risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and progression to disease.Objectives: We investigated biosignatures with predictive ability for incident TB.Methods: In a case-control study nested within the Grand Challenges 6-74 longitudinal HIV-negative African cohort of exposed household contacts, we employed RNA sequencing, PCR, and the pair ratio algorithm in a training/test set approach. Overall, 79 progressors who developed TB between 3 and 24 months after diagnosis of index case and 328 matched nonprogressors who remained healthy during 24 months of follow-up were investigated. Measurements and Main Results:A four-transcript signature derived from samples in a South African and Gambian training set predicted progression up to two years before onset of disease in blinded test set samples from South Africa, the Gambia, and Ethiopia with little population-associated variability, and it was also validated in an external cohort of South African adolescents with latent M. tuberculosis infection. By contrast, published diagnostic or prognostic TB signatures were predicted in samples from some but not all three countries, indicating site-specific variability. Post hoc meta-analysis identified a single gene pair, C1QC/TRAV27 (complement C1q C-chain / T-cell receptor-a variable gene 27) that would consistently predict TB progression in household contacts from multiple African sites but not in infected adolescents without known recent exposure events.Conclusions: Collectively, we developed a simple whole blood-based PCR test to predict TB in recently exposed household contacts from diverse African populations. This test has potential for implementation in national TB contact investigation programs.

Summary Brain swelling is the major predictor of mortality in pediatric cerebral malaria (CM). However, the mechanisms leading to swelling remain poorly defined. Here, we combined neuroimaging, parasite transcript profiling, and laboratory blood profiles to develop machine learning models of malarial retinopathy and brain swelling. We found that parasite var transcripts encoding endothelial protein C receptor (EPCR) binding domains, in combination with high parasite biomass and low platelet levels, are strong indicators of CM cases with malarial retinopathy. Swelling cases presented low platelet levels and increased transcript abundance of parasite PfEMP1 DC8 and group A EPCR-binding domains. Remarkably, the dominant transcript in 50% of swelling cases encoded PfEMP1 group A CIDRα1.7 domains. Furthermore, a recombinant CIDRα1.7 domain from a pediatric CM brain autopsy inhibited the barrier protective properties of EPCR in human brain endothelial cells in vitro. Together, these findings suggest a detrimental role for EPCR-binding CIDRα1 domains in brain swelling.

New biomarkers of tuberculosis (TB) risk and disease are critical for the urgently needed control of the ongoing TB pandemic. In a prospective multisite study across Subsaharan Africa, we analyzed metabolic profiles in serum and plasma from HIV-negative, TB-exposed individuals who either progressed to TB 3–24 months post-exposure (progressors) or remained healthy (controls). We generated a trans-African metabolic biosignature for TB, which identifies future progressors both on blinded test samples and in external data sets and shows a performance of 69% sensitivity at 75% specificity in samples within 5 months of diagnosis. These prognostic metabolic signatures are consistent with development of subclinical disease prior to manifestation of active TB. Metabolic changes associated with pre-symptomatic disease are observed as early as 12 months prior to TB diagnosis, thus enabling timely interventions to prevent disease progression and transmission.