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The Novel Coronavirus has brought uncertainties to all countries in the world, causing human suffering and economic downturn that are unprecedented in recent history. This paper is the first empirical research that analyzes the effects of the outbreak on the Turkish stock market. The paper employed a fixed-effect model with daily data to explore the economic impact of the global pandemic at the sectoral level. Findings showed that sectoral indices were affected by the number of cases reported in Turkey than the number of cases in Europe and in the world. Furthermore, the most adversely affected sectors were metal products, machinery and sports, insurance and banking sectors. Despite the substantial economic downturn, food-beverage, wholesale and retail trade and real estate investment sectors have been the less affected industries from the outbreak.

This empirical investigation aims at forecasting the macroeconomic determinants of Istanbul Stock Price (XU 100) in Turkey by using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Model over the period spanning from the January 2010 to December 2019. In this study, we used 10 macroeconomic variables for forecasting stock price using the MARS model. Our results indicate that variables such as inflation rate, gold prices, industrial production index, money supply, exchange rate, credit volume, and internal debt stock were found to be important for forecasting XU100 price.

In this paper, twentyfour sectoral indices of stock prices operated in the Turkish stock market are analyzed for evidence of rational speculative bubbles using the generalized supremum Augmented -Dickey -Fuller (GSADF) test. Then, detecting rational speculative bubbles, we define a dummy variable to capture the bubble dates and ran the logit model to determine the factors that influence bubble formation. Empirical results depict that Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), Credit Default Swap Spreads (CDS), and Volatility Index (VIX) are the important variables that cause the probability of bubble formation in the Turkish stock market.