Article HistoryReceived: 5 December 2017 Revised: 3 January 2018 Accepted: 9 January 2018 Published: 15 January 2018 KeywordsForecasting ARIMA Renewable energy consumption Coal consumption Oil consumption Natural gas consumption Turkey.Forecasting energy consumption has an important role in planning energy strategies for both policy makers and related organizations in any country. In this study, coal, oil, natural gas, renewable and total energy consumption data for 1970-2015 is used to forecast energy consumption of Turkey for the next 25 years, using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The ARIMA models are determined to be ARIMA(1, 1, 1) for coal consumption, ARIMA (0, 1, 0) for oil consumption, ARIMA (0, 0, 0) for natural gas consumption, ARIMA (1, 1, 0) for renewable energy consumption and ARIMA (0, 1, 2) for total energy consumption. The results indicate that Turkey's energy consumption will continue to increase by the end of 2040. Consumption of coal, oil, natural gas, renewable energy and total energy will continue to increase at an annual average rate of 4.87 %, 3.92 %, 4.39 %, 1.64 % and 4.20 %, respectively in the next 25 years. Contribution/ Originality:This study is one of very few studies, which have forecasted energy consumption of Turkey. Moreover, the forecasted results provide a reference for Turkey to develop energy strategy to solve prevenient energy supply shortage in the future.

ABSTRACT

This study mainly attempts to cast light into the dynamic relationships between coal consumption, economic growth, energy price and technological innovation in Turkey over the period of 1980-2015. Based on the results drawing from an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, coal consumption, economic growth, energy price and technological innovation are cointegrated. Specifically, the empirical results indicate that economic growth positively affects coal consumption, whereas technological innovation negatively affects it over a long-run. Regarding short-run dynamic relationships, economic growth and technological innovation have a positive impact on coal consumption. The results from the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model suggest that an annual average growth rate of coal consumption will be 2.02% between 2016 and 2025. Regarding policy implications, the results of this study suggest that policy makers should allocate more resources to research and development on energy technologies to improve energy efficiency in Turkey. Contribution/ Originality: This study is one of the few studies which have investigated coal consumptiongrowth nexus in a multivariate setting. Considering that technological innovation has not been incorporated by previous coal consumption-growth studies, this study contributes to the existing literature by incorporating technological innovation in the analysis. next three decades. The largest coal producing countries are China, the USA, India, Indonesia, Australia and South Africa (World Energy Council, 2016). Among other countries, Turkey is evaluated as being at medium levels in terms of the reserves and production amounts of coal and lignite in the world. Nearly, 3.2% (1.3 billion tons of coal and 17.3 billion tons of lignite) of the total world reserves of coal and lignite are in Turkey (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, 2018). European Association for Coal and Lignite reports that in 2015,

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Mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV)-based vectors are characterized by low titers. In an effort to transfer MMTV-specific regulation of gene expression to a more efficient murine leukemia virus (MLV) vector, we have replaced the complete 3′ U3 region of MLV with the complete U3 region of MMTV. Virus titers were not significantly affected by this modification, there was no impairment of reverse transcription and integration, and after infection of cells, the MMTV promoter is duplicated and translocated to the 5′ long terminal repeat, resulting in glucocorticoid-regulatable RNA expression.