Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate‐induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long‐term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water‐deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large‐statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry‐affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet‐affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry‐affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate‐change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole‐community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO 2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large‐statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.

Lineages tend to retain ecological characteristics of their ancestors through time. However, for some traits, selection during evolutionary history may have also played a role in determining trait values. To address the relative importance of these processes requires large-scale quantification of traits and evolutionary relationships among species. The Amazonian tree flora comprises a high diversity of angiosperm lineages and species with widely differing life-history characteristics, providing an excellent system to investigate the combined influences of evolutionary heritage and selection in determining trait variation. We used trait data related to the major axes of life-history variation among tropical trees (e.g. growth and mortality rates) from 577 inventory plots in closed-canopy forest, mapped onto a phylogenetic hypothesis spanning more than 300 genera including all major angiosperm clades to test for evolutionary constraints on traits. We found significant phylogenetic signal (PS) for all traits, consistent with evolutionarily related genera having more similar characteristics than expected by chance. Although there is also evidence for repeated evolution of pioneer and shade tolerant life-history strategies within independent lineages, the existence of significant PS allows clearer predictions of the links between evolutionary diversity, ecosystem function and the response of tropical forests to global change.

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Tropical forests hold 30% of Earth’s terrestrial carbon and at least 60% of its terrestrial biodiversity, but forest loss and degradation are jeopardizing these ecosystems. Although the regrowth of secondary forests has the potential to offset some of the losses of carbon and biodiversity, it remains unclear if secondary regeneration will be affected by climate changes such as higher temperatures and more frequent extreme droughts. We used a data set of 10 repeated forest inventories spanning two decades (1999–2017) to investigate carbon and tree species recovery and how climate and landscape context influence carbon dynamics in an older secondary forest located in one of the oldest post‐Columbian agricultural frontiers in the Brazilian Amazon. Carbon accumulation averaged 1.08 Mg·ha−1·yr−1, and species richness was effectively constant over the studied period. Moreover, we provide evidence that secondary forests are vulnerable to drought stress: Carbon balance and growth rates were lower in drier periods. This contrasts with drought responses in primary forests, where changes in carbon dynamics are driven by increased stem mortality. These results highlight an important climate change–vegetation feedback, whereby the increasing dry‐season lengths being observed across parts of Amazonia may reduce the effectiveness of secondary forests in sequestering carbon and mitigating climate change. In addition, the current rate of forest regrowth in this region was low compared with previous pan‐tropical and Amazonian assessments—our secondary forests reached just 41.1% of the average carbon and 56% of the tree diversity in the nearest primary forests—suggesting that these areas are unlikely to return to their original levels on politically meaningful time scales.